Core Viewpoint - The transportation sector is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index in April 2025, with long-term value in transportation assets and attractive dividend yields post-correction [1][2]. Monthly Market Performance - From April 1 to April 18, 2025, the transportation sector declined by 0.1%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.85 percentage points. The performance of sub-sectors includes: highways at -0.61%, railway transportation at +5.09%, and ports at -2.82% [2]. - The interest rate environment remains low, with the 10-year government bond yield at 1.65%, down 16 basis points from 1.81% on March 31, 2025 [2]. - Trading volumes across sectors have rebounded, with significant increases in average daily trading volumes: highways at 2.91 billion yuan (up 29.8% year-on-year), railways at 2.41 billion yuan (up 14.28% year-on-year), and ports at 5.23 billion yuan (up 224.7% year-on-year) [2]. Industry Valuation - In terms of historical PE percentiles, railways are the highest among major dividend asset sub-sectors, while public utilities are the lowest. For PB historical percentiles, highways rank highest, and electric equipment ranks lowest. The overall dividend yield for highways, railways, and ports is in the range of 3%-4%, with coal and banks leading [3]. Capital Operations - Anhui Expressway (600012) has raised 5.22 billion HKD through a private placement to Anhui Transportation Holding Group [4]. Industry Data - The first quarter of 2025 is expected to show good growth in highway toll revenues, with recent port throughput data unaffected by tariffs. For highways, passenger traffic in January-February 2025 was 1.862 billion trips (down 0.2% year-on-year), while freight volume reached 5.765 billion tons (up 5.7% year-on-year) [5]. - In March 2025, railway passenger volume was 337 million trips (up 4.9% year-on-year), while freight volume was 44.5 million tons (up 2.4% year-on-year) [5]. - Port throughput data shows a total of 1.048 billion tons in the past four weeks (up 4.5% year-on-year), with a cumulative total of 3.883 billion tons year-to-date (up 3.8% year-on-year) [6]. 2024 Annual Report Highlights - For highways, the top five companies by performance growth are: Sichuan Chengyu (601107) (+22.91%), Ninghu Expressway (600377) (+12.09%), and others. The top five by cash dividend ratio include: Guangdong Expressway A (70%) and others. The corresponding dividend yields as of April 18, 2025, are led by Sichuan Chengyu (5.12%) [7]. - For ports, the top five companies by performance growth are: China Merchants Port (001872) (+26.44%) and others. The corresponding dividend yields are led by Tangshan Port (4.72%) [7].
华创证券：看好交运长期配置价值 公路主业业绩或迎回升
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-04-23 06:02