美国经济增速大幅放缓、通胀攀升，IMF警告关税冲击

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns that U.S. tariff measures will have significant negative impacts on the global economy, including the U.S. itself, with a notable reduction in economic growth forecasts for 2025 and rising inflation expectations [1][2]. Economic Growth Projections - The IMF projects global economic growth to slow to 2.8% in 2025, down from an earlier forecast of 3.3% made in January, and below the historical average of 3.7% from 2000 to 2019 [1]. - The U.S. economic growth forecast for this year has been revised down to 1.8%, a decrease of nearly 1 percentage point from the previous estimate of 2.7% [1]. - The U.S. economic growth for 2026 is expected to be 1.7%, down 0.4 percentage points from earlier predictions [1]. Inflation Expectations - The IMF predicts that U.S. inflation will rise to 3% this year, which is 1 percentage point higher than the forecast made in January [1][2]. Impact on Other Economies - The IMF forecasts that Mexico, as a major trading partner of the U.S., will experience the most severe economic impact, with a projected contraction of 0.3% this year [4]. - Japan's economic growth is expected to be 0.6%, down from a previous estimate of 1.1%, while Germany's growth is projected to be flat at 0.0% this year [4]. Risks and Uncertainties - The current economic outlook is dominated by increasing downside risks, with escalating trade tensions and policy uncertainties potentially suppressing both short-term and long-term economic growth [4]. - The IMF has raised the probability of a U.S. recession in 2025 from 25% to 37% [4]. Potential for Improvement - The IMF's chief economist suggests that if current trade policies are paused and new trade agreements are reached, the global economic growth outlook could improve immediately [5].