黄金狂飙再创历史新高！3480美元关口告破，避险浪潮下谁在“淘金”？

Core Viewpoint - The international spot gold price has surged past $3480 per ounce, marking a historic high driven by strong market sentiment and various global factors [1][3]. Group 1: Market Drivers - Geopolitical conflicts and trade wars have led to a surge in safe-haven demand for gold, with global ETF inflows reaching $21 billion in Q1 2025, the second-highest on record [3]. - A crisis of confidence in the US dollar, with the dollar index dropping to 99.34, has contributed to a de-dollarization trend, further supporting gold prices [3][4]. - Technical and funding dynamics have created a short squeeze, with COMEX gold futures open interest increasing by 18% and speculative net long positions reaching 67% [4]. - Young investors, particularly those born in the 1990s and 2000s, now account for over 70% of gold purchases, favoring lightweight products and driving a "fashion investment" trend [5]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Risks - Despite the bullish trend, there are emerging risk signals, including potential technical corrections and warnings from Federal Reserve officials regarding inflation and interest rate policies [6]. - Institutional views are polarized, with bullish forecasts from firms like UBS and Goldman Sachs predicting gold prices could reach $3500-$3700, while Morgan Stanley warns of a potential correction to the $2800-$3200 range [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Short-term expectations suggest that geopolitical risks and a weak dollar may push gold prices towards $3500, but caution is advised due to overbought conditions [7]. - In the medium to long term, trends such as de-dollarization and economic uncertainties related to the US elections and stagflation risks are expected to support gold prices, with Goldman Sachs predicting a potential challenge to $3700 if unemployment exceeds 5% [7].