顶级宏观大佬重量级对谈：“美国例外论”走向终结，未来五年美国资产将跑输全球

Core Viewpoint - The discussion highlights the potential end of the "American exceptionalism" narrative, suggesting that U.S. assets may no longer outperform global counterparts, leading to a shift in investment strategies towards other regions and asset classes [1][2][3]. Group 1: Economic and Market Trends - The decline of the dollar and the peak of dollar assets began in January, coinciding with the bond market's reaction to U.S. legislators [2][3]. - U.S. fiscal spending is a significant factor in the potential end of "American exceptionalism," with global capital seeking new investment destinations [2][3]. - The U.S. market may enter a five-year cycle of underperformance compared to global markets, with the perception of "oversold" conditions needing reevaluation [2][3][4]. - The U.S. asset performance is increasingly resembling that of emerging market countries, indicating a transition into a weak dollar era [2][3][4]. Group 2: Geopolitical and Policy Implications - The current geopolitical landscape is characterized as multipolar rather than binary, challenging the "pseudo-Cold War model" that investors often rely on [2][3]. - The U.S. government's focus on bond yields over stock performance suggests a strategic approach to managing economic downturns [2][3]. - Trade negotiations with countries like Japan and South Korea may be too late to restore confidence and mitigate impacts on capital and consumer behavior [2][3][4]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Future market winners are expected to include Canada, Europe, Japan, non-aligned countries, and commodities, while the U.S. is likely to be a significant loser [3][4]. - There is a growing optimism towards Latin American assets, which are currently undervalued and exempt from recent tariffs [3][4]. - The discussion emphasizes the need for investors to diversify away from overexposed U.S. assets and consider emerging markets and commodities as viable alternatives in a weak dollar environment [3][4].