巨富金业：地缘风险降温与美联储预期调整，金银投资策略新指引

Group 1: Gold Market Fundamentals - Geopolitical risk premium is decreasing, leading to a reduction in safe-haven demand as investors recognize that current conflicts have not escalated into a full-blown energy supply crisis [3] - The largest gold ETF (SPDR) has seen a reduction in holdings, with a decrease of 18 tons from its peak on April 23, reflecting a weakening of institutional hedging [3] - The probability of maintaining the current interest rate range of 5.25%-5.5% has surged to 91.7%, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut has dropped to 8.3%, impacting gold's pricing logic [4] Group 2: Market Reactions and Technical Analysis - After reaching a historical high of $3500.12 on April 22, gold experienced a significant sell-off, with a single-day drop of $130 due to profit-taking and technical resistance [5] - The COMEX gold futures open interest peaked at over 600,000 contracts, leading to a 25% decrease in net long positions following the price drop [5] - Current short-term technical indicators suggest a high probability of further price declines in gold, with a recommendation for investors to consider short positions near resistance levels [6][7] Group 3: Silver Market Technical Analysis - Silver prices are currently fluctuating within a defined range, with a focus on the 1-hour cycle indicating a sideways movement [9] - Investors are advised to wait for a breakout above $33.160 to go long or a breakdown below $32.050 to go short, with stop-loss and take-profit levels set at $0.640 [9]