Macro巨汇黄金价格分析：金价跳水近200美元！贸易战降温信号引爆市场

Market Overview - Gold prices experienced a decline of over 2%, trading around $3316.45 after briefly reaching a historical high of $3500 on Tuesday, influenced by U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin's comments suggesting a potential easing of trade tensions, which boosted stock market optimism and strengthened the dollar [1][3] - The spot gold price fell by 1.5% to $3372.68, after hitting $3500.05 earlier in the day, while U.S. futures prices decreased by 0.2% to $3419.40 [3] - Year-to-date, spot gold has risen by 29%, marking its 28th historical high this year [3] Economic Indicators - Morgan Stanley forecasts that gold prices will continue to rise, predicting a breakthrough of $4000 per ounce next year amid increasing recession risks, U.S. tariff hikes, and ongoing trade tensions [4] - The relative strength index (RSI) for gold is at 74, indicating an overbought condition [4] Currency Market - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.6% to 98.937, recovering from a low of 97.923, which was the lowest since March 2022 [7] - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have emerged, particularly following President Trump's criticism of Fed Chairman Powell, which analysts believe could impact the dollar's value as a reserve currency [7][8] - The dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen, trading at 141.470, after previously dipping below the psychological level of 140 [9]