合盛硅业(603260)：硅基产业链景气低迷 短期业绩承压

Core Viewpoint - The company reported 2024 performance in line with market expectations, while 1Q25 results were slightly below expectations due to industry downturn and price drops in industrial silicon and organic silicon [1] Group 1: 2024 Performance - The company achieved revenue of 26.69 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.4% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 33.6%, with earnings per share of 1.47 yuan, meeting market expectations [1] - In 4Q24, revenue was 6.32 billion yuan, with a net profit of 286 million yuan [1] Group 2: 1Q25 Performance - For 1Q25, the company reported revenue of 5.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 3.5% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 260 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 50.8%, with earnings per share of 0.22 yuan, slightly below market expectations [1] Group 3: Industry Trends - The industrial silicon industry is expected to see supply growth slow down in 2025, with total production capacity increasing by 11% to 6.65 million tons in 2024 [2] - The average price of industrial silicon in 2024 was 13,000 yuan per ton, down 15.4% year-on-year, and the average price in 2025 to date is 11,000 yuan per ton, down 15.3% year-on-year [2] - The organic silicon industry is projected to see a recovery in supply-demand balance in 2025-26, with demand growth expected to be in the range of 5-10% [3] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has lowered its 2025 profit forecast by 31% to 1.94 billion yuan and introduced a 2026 forecast of 3.50 billion yuan [4] - The target price has been reduced by 10% to 65 yuan, corresponding to 40/22 times the price-to-earnings ratio for 2025/26, indicating a 22% upside potential from the current stock price [4]