债券巨头PIMCO“放空”：低配美元！

Core Viewpoint - PIMCO's report suggests that the current macroeconomic developments are self-destructive for the U.S., advocating for a reduced allocation to the dollar and a shift towards long-duration bonds in Europe, emerging markets, Japan, and the UK [1] Group 1: Dollar's Status - The report indicates that the status of the dollar as a global reserve currency is not guaranteed, as changes in U.S. trade policy prompt investors to reassess long-term assumptions about the U.S. investment environment [2] - Recent declines in the dollar, U.S. stocks, and U.S. Treasury bonds suggest a potential shift towards a more multipolar world, reducing reliance on a single reserve currency [2] Group 2: Investment Paradigm Shift - PIMCO notes a transformation in the paradigm of holding U.S. assets, highlighting that the U.S. has historically benefited from a consumption-driven economy, leading to a capital account surplus [3] - The disruption caused by tariffs may complicate the financing of the U.S. dual current account and fiscal deficits, leading to investor confusion regarding the extent of U.S. asset holdings [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve Challenges - The report outlines that the U.S. faces high sovereign debt levels and inflation exceeding the Federal Reserve's 2% target, complicating the Fed's ability to balance inflation expectations with growth prospects [4] - Other regions may experience currency appreciation, allowing central banks like the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank to adopt more dovish stances [4] Group 4: Shift Towards Domestic Assets - PIMCO emphasizes that as the global order evolves, U.S. investors may prioritize capital returns over equity returns, leading to a diversification of investments [5] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - PIMCO recommends a reduced allocation to the dollar due to the U.S. having the largest negative net international investment position, suggesting that the dollar may weaken as this balance adjusts [6] - The report advocates for a higher allocation to global duration, particularly in Europe, emerging markets, Japan, and the UK, as these options appear more attractive compared to the U.S. [6] - It also suggests benefiting from a steepening yield curve and reducing credit exposure, anticipating a widening gap between investment-grade and high-yield credit [6]