德银：经济衰退“不可避免”？市场说不要那么确定

Core Viewpoint - Despite recent volatility in financial markets, traders have not fully priced in recession risks, indicating a potential disconnect between market performance and economic realities [1] Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has declined by 12.5% from its historical high on February 19, with a maximum drop of 18.9% since the announcement of tariffs [2] - Current market declines are not comparable to those seen during past recessions, where declines were at least 19.9% [2] - Credit spreads are not reflecting the market pressures typically associated with recessions, with current high-yield bond spreads at 397 basis points, significantly lower than levels seen during past recessions [2] Oil Prices - Brent crude oil prices have only decreased by 10% since the tariff announcement, which is much less than the two-thirds drop observed during the COVID-19 pandemic and the financial crisis [3] - The moderate decline in oil prices suggests that investors do not anticipate a significant slowdown in the global economy [3] Yield Curve - The yield curve, particularly the spread between 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds, is showing signs of steepening, which is often a precursor to recession [3] - The steepening of the yield curve has been influenced by rising long-term yields, indicating investor concerns about the safety of long-term government bonds [3] Economic Indicators - Upcoming hard data, such as non-farm payroll reports, will be crucial in assessing whether the economy is heading into a recession, as recent survey data has been less reliable [4]