Milkground(SH:600882) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-04-24 10:35Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, with significant growth in revenue and net profit, driven by an optimized revenue structure and integration of Mengniu cheese [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.233 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, and a net profit of 82 million yuan, up 114.9% year-on-year [1]. - Basic EPS reached 0.164 yuan per share, reflecting a 115.8% increase compared to the previous year [1]. - The adjusted gross margin and net margin were 31.5% and 6.7%, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 2.82 and 3.38 percentage points [1]. Revenue Breakdown - Cheese business revenue reached 1.03 billion yuan, a 31.2% increase year-on-year, accounting for 84.0% of total revenue [2]. - Trade business revenue was 101 million yuan, up 22.7%, while liquid milk revenue was 95 million yuan, increasing by 17% [2]. - The company saw a 30.6% increase in revenue from distribution channels, totaling 959 million yuan, and a 26.3% increase from direct sales channels, totaling 165 million yuan [2]. Channel and Regional Performance - The number of distributors increased by 67.4% year-on-year, with a net addition of 249 distributors in Q1 2025 [2]. - Revenue by region showed that the North, Central, and South regions generated 464 million, 514 million, and 248 million yuan, respectively, with the Central region growing rapidly and accounting for 41.9% of total revenue [2]. Strategic Initiatives - The company launched stock option and employee stock ownership plans aimed at achieving a profit CAGR of over 50% in the next three years, reflecting confidence in consumption recovery and industry growth [3]. - The integration with Mengniu cheese is expected to yield synergies in branding, channels, and supply, contributing to sustained profit improvement [3]. Market Trends - A temporary rebound in birth rates in China is anticipated to support mid-term improvements, with various local governments implementing supportive policies for childbirth [4]. - The company is focusing on developing cheese products tailored for the elderly, addressing nutritional needs and health benefits [4]. Investment Outlook - The cheese segment is identified as a high-growth area within the dairy industry, aligning with consumer trends and national policy directions [5]. - The company is positioned to benefit from external improvements and strategic execution, with expected EPS of 0.22, 0.41, and 0.63 yuan per share for 2024-2026, corresponding to PE ratios of 86.8x, 47.5x, and 30.5x [6].