商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院李峄：解构即时零售变革与增长逻辑

Core Insights - The future of instant retail is being shaped by the booming digital economy and increasingly diverse consumer demands, with a focus on market expansion and innovative business models [1] Group 1: Concept and Characteristics - Instant retail is defined as the "local fulfillment of immediate demand," characterized by the model of "online ordering + local supply + instant delivery," which transforms consumer experience from "planned waiting" to "immediate response" [2] - The integration of "information flow, capital flow, business flow, and logistics" is a key innovation in instant retail, allowing for real-time interaction and efficient local delivery [2] Group 2: Market Growth and User Demographics - The instant retail market is projected to reach a conservative estimate of 2 trillion yuan by 2030, with an annual growth rate exceeding 25%, significantly outpacing traditional e-commerce growth [3] - User demographics are shifting from age-based to demand-based segmentation, with a notable increase in the 50-59 age group, which now accounts for 20% of users, emphasizing practical needs over novelty [4] Group 3: Product Categories and Operational Models - Instant retail features a dual logic of "stable basic categories" and "emerging high-growth categories," with staples like snacks and beverages forming the core, while categories like beauty and outdoor gear show rapid growth [5][6] - Operational models are categorized into self-operated and third-party platforms, with innovations in delivery methods and supply chain structures, such as the "front warehouse + store" model enhancing efficiency [7] Group 4: Opportunities and Growth Engines - Instant retail is positioned as a solution to traditional e-commerce's saturation, focusing on local supply chains and time-based consumer needs, with significant growth in office and travel-related products [8] - Logistics advancements, including cold chain packaging and exploration of unmanned delivery technologies, are critical for enhancing service efficiency and reducing costs [9] Group 5: County Market and Service Innovations - The county market represents a significant growth opportunity, with less than 10% penetration, where local supply chains can address unmet demand [11] - Service-oriented products are evolving, with standardized and emotional services gaining traction, such as 24-hour printing and personalized gift deliveries [12] Group 6: Future Trends and Challenges - Future trends indicate a shift towards night economy specialization and emotional value creation in consumer demands, with a focus on creating experiences rather than merely solving problems [13][14] - Key challenges include supply chain management, cost control, and competition, necessitating strategies for collaboration, technology adoption, and differentiation [18][19]