Starbucks (SBUX) Q2 Earnings Preview: What You Should Know Beyond the Headline Estimates

Core Viewpoint - Analysts forecast that Starbucks will report quarterly earnings of $0.49 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 27.9%, with anticipated revenues of $8.79 billion, an increase of 2.6% compared to the previous year [1]. Earnings Projections - Over the past 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been adjusted downward by 2.4%, indicating a reassessment by covering analysts [2]. - Changes in earnings projections are crucial for predicting investor reactions, as empirical studies show a strong correlation between earnings estimate trends and short-term stock price movements [3]. Revenue Estimates - Analysts expect 'Net Revenues- Company-operated stores' to be $7.29 billion, a year-over-year increase of 3.4% [5]. - 'Net Revenues- Licensed stores' are projected to reach $1.05 billion, reflecting a decline of 0.6% year-over-year [5]. - 'Net Revenues- Other' is estimated at $456.59 million, indicating a slight increase of 0.2% from the prior year [5]. - The consensus for 'Net Revenues- Channel Development' stands at $422.80 million, suggesting a year-over-year change of 1.1% [6]. - 'Net Revenues- North America' is estimated at $6.57 billion, a 2.9% increase year-over-year, while 'Net Revenues- International' is projected to be $1.85 billion, reflecting a 5.1% increase [6]. Store Metrics - Analysts predict 'Total Stores' will reach 40,887, up from 38,951 a year ago [7]. - 'Total Licensed stores EOP' is expected to be 19,371, compared to 18,842 in the same quarter last year [7]. - 'Total Stores - North America' is projected at 18,635, an increase from 18,065 year-over-year [7]. - 'Total Company-operated stores EOP' is forecasted to be 21,512, up from 20,109 in the previous year [8]. - 'Total Stores - International' is expected to reach 22,217, compared to 20,886 a year ago [8]. - 'Licensed stores - International' is projected to be 12,042, an increase from 11,604 in the same quarter last year [9]. Stock Performance - Starbucks shares have decreased by 15.5% over the past month, contrasting with a 5.1% decline in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [9].