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巨化股份(600160):24年净利高增 制冷剂景气向上

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the year 2024, driven by the recovery in the refrigerant market, and maintains a "buy" rating due to positive outlooks for future performance [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The total revenue for 2024 reached 24.5 billion yuan, representing an 18% year-over-year increase [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.96 billion yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 108%, and a non-recurring profit of 1.90 billion yuan, reflecting a 131% increase [1]. - In Q4 2024, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 700 million yuan, with a year-over-year increase of 257% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 66% [1]. Group 2: Segment Performance - The refrigerant segment saw a 23% year-over-year increase in external sales volume to 353,000 tons, primarily due to the consolidation of Feiyuan Chemical and rising prices under quota systems, with average prices increasing by 33% to 26,800 yuan per ton [2]. - The fluoropolymer segment experienced an 8% year-over-year increase in sales volume to 46,000 tons, but faced price pressure, with average prices declining by 15% to 38,000 yuan per ton [2]. - The fine fluorochemical segment reported a remarkable 255% year-over-year increase in sales volume to 5,000 tons, with revenue growing by 99% to 280 million yuan [2]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The refrigerant market is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by demand from downstream sectors such as air conditioning and automotive, alongside tight supply conditions for second and third-generation refrigerants [3]. - The company is set to benefit from new projects, including FEP, Juxin cooling liquids, and fourth-generation refrigerants, which are anticipated to enhance integrated and scale advantages [3]. Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has revised its profit forecasts upward, expecting net profits of 4.1 billion yuan, 5.3 billion yuan, and 6.1 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting increases of 8% and 14% for 2025-2026 compared to previous estimates [4]. - The target price for the company is set at 30.4 yuan based on a 20x PE ratio for 2025, up from a previous target of 28.2 yuan [4].