国信证券发布研报称，展望2026年一季度，伴随一季度长协价格确定，终端空调企业长协订单执行稳 定。根据百川盈孚、卓创咨询，26年1月份R22、R125、R152a报价均上涨。排产方面，2026年前两月排 产出现分化，1月受元旦假期以及部分企业前置2月春节排产影响，内销排产推高。此外，关注成本支 撑、供需改善背景下含氟聚合物价格上涨，建议关注PVDF、PTFE等含氟高分子价格修复。 国信证券主要观点如下： 一季度主流制冷剂长协价格持续上涨 展望一季度，伴随一季度长协价格确定，终端空调企业长协订单执行稳定：据卓创资讯（301299）， R32长协价格将在6.12万元/吨，环比2025年四季度价格上涨1000元/吨，涨幅1.66%；R410A长协价格在 5.51万元/吨，环比2025年四季度上涨1900元/吨，涨幅3.57%。预计往后一周R32价格区间约6.2-6.3万元/ 吨，R410a往后一周价格区间约5.5-5.6万元/吨，R134a往后一周价格区间约5.6-5.7万元/吨。 R22、R125、R152a报价上涨 根据百川盈孚、卓创咨询，本月R22报价提升至1.7万元/吨，较上月+1000元/吨；R134a报 ...

化工板块午后持续强势，反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）持续高位震荡，截至发稿，场内价格涨3.13%。 如何把握化工板块反弹机遇？借道化工ETF（516020）布局效率或更高。公开资料显示，化工ETF（516020）跟踪中证细分化工产业主题指数，成份股覆盖 AI算力、反内卷、机器人、新能源等热门主题。场外投资者亦可通过化工ETF联接基金（A类012537/C类012538）布局化工板块。 来源：沪深交易所等，截至2026.2.6。 注：投资者在申购或赎回基金份额时，申购赎回代理券商可按照不超过0.5%的标准收取佣金，其中包含证券交易所、登记机构等收取的相关费用。化工ETF 不收取销售服务费。 成份股方面，锂电、磷化工、氟化工等热门板块集体猛攻！截至发稿，恩捷股份涨停，宏达股份、多氟多双双大涨超8%，天赐材料、浙江龙盛涨超7%，星 源材质、华峰化学、荣盛石化等多股涨超5%。 | 分时 多日 | | 1分 5分 15分 30分 | ୧୦સ્ત્ર | 日 周月 更多 | | | F9 盘前盘后 叠加 九转 | | 画线 丁目 > 2 > | 4. TETF O | | | | --- | --- | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the fluorochemical industry [5][10]. Core Insights - The fluorochemical industry is experiencing rapid growth, with prices of fluorinated polymers continuing to rise. The performance of fluorochemical companies is strong, supported by stable demand and supply dynamics [1][4]. - The long-term outlook for mainstream refrigerants such as R32, R134a, and R125 remains positive due to tightening quota constraints, which are expected to sustain price increases [5][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - As of January 30, 2026, the fluorochemical index stood at 2155.24 points, up 6.77% from the end of December 2025. The index underperformed the Shenwan Chemical Index by 5.95 percentage points but outperformed the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite indices by 5.12 and 3.01 percentage points, respectively [1][17]. 2. Refrigerant Market Review - In the first quarter of 2026, long-term contract prices for mainstream refrigerants are on the rise. R32 is expected to be priced at 61,200 CNY/ton, a 1.66% increase from the previous quarter, while R410A is projected at 55,100 CNY/ton, up 3.57% [2][22]. - The domestic prices for R22, R134a, R125, and R32 have shown increases, with R22 reaching 17,000 CNY/ton, R125 at 48,500 CNY/ton, and R134a maintaining at 58,000 CNY/ton [24][23]. 3. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side of the fluorochemical industry is characterized by tight overall supply and low inventory levels among companies, which supports price increases. The demand side shows continued interest in stockpiling ahead of the holiday season [4][9]. - The production quotas for refrigerants in 2026 indicate a slight increase in the production capacity for R32, R125, and R134a, while R143a and R152a quotas have been reduced [4][79]. 4. Liquid Cooling Demand - The rapid growth of data centers is driving the demand for fluorinated liquids and refrigerants, as traditional air cooling methods are becoming insufficient. The market for liquid cooling solutions is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating a market size exceeding 100 billion CNY by 2027 [64][70]. - Companies involved in the production of fluorinated liquids, such as Juhua Co., Dongyue Group, and others, are well-positioned to benefit from this trend [73][74]. 5. Key Company Profit Forecasts - Juhua Co. is expected to achieve a net profit of 3.54-3.94 billion CNY in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 80%-101%. Dongyue Group and Sanmei Co. are also projected to see significant profit increases [4][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the fluorochemical industry [5][10]. Core Insights - The fluorochemical industry is experiencing rapid growth, with prices of fluoropolymers continuing to rise. The industry index has shown a performance that outpaces the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 Index [1][5]. - The first quarter of 2026 is expected to see stable execution of long-term contracts for refrigerants, with significant price increases noted for R32 and R410A [2][5]. - The demand for fluorinated liquids and refrigerants is anticipated to increase due to the growth of liquid cooling technologies in data centers, driven by the need for efficient cooling solutions [3][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - As of January 30, 2026, the fluorochemical index reached 2155.24 points, up 6.77% from the end of December 2025, while the chemical index rose by 12.72% [1][17]. - The Guosen Chemical Fluorochemical Price Index reported a 2.95% increase, indicating a positive trend in pricing for fluorochemical products [1][18]. 2. Refrigerant Market Review - Long-term contract prices for refrigerants are on the rise, with R32 priced at 61,200 CNY/ton and R410A at 55,100 CNY/ton, reflecting increases of 1.66% and 3.57% respectively from the previous quarter [2][22]. - The domestic prices for R22, R125, and R134a have also seen upward adjustments, with R22 now at 17,000 CNY/ton, up 1,000 CNY/ton from the previous month [2][24]. 3. Liquid Cooling Demand - The report highlights the urgent need for efficient cooling technologies in data centers, with liquid cooling solutions becoming increasingly favored over traditional air cooling due to their superior efficiency [3][64]. - The market for liquid cooling in data centers is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate of 51.4% expected from 2019 to 2027 [3][70]. 4. Refrigerant Quota Announcements - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has announced the refrigerant quotas for 2026, indicating a slight increase in production quotas for R32, R125, and R134a, while R141b's quota has been eliminated [4][79]. - The report suggests that the tightening of refrigerant quotas will support long-term price stability and growth in the industry [4][74]. 5. Company Profit Forecasts - Major companies in the fluorochemical sector, such as Juhua Co., Dongyue Group, and Sanmei Co., are expected to see significant profit growth in 2025, with Juhua's net profit projected to increase by 80%-101% [4][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the fluorochemical industry [5][10]. Core Insights - The fluorochemical industry is experiencing rapid growth, with prices of fluorinated polymers continuing to rise. The industry index has shown a performance that outpaces the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 Index [1][5]. - The first quarter of 2026 is expected to see sustained price increases for mainstream refrigerants due to stable execution of long-term contracts by terminal air conditioning companies [2][5]. - The demand for fluorinated liquids and refrigerants is anticipated to increase due to the growth of liquid cooling technologies in data centers, driven by the need for efficient cooling solutions [3][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - As of January 30, 2026, the fluorochemical index was at 2155.24 points, up 6.77% from the end of December 2025, indicating a strong performance relative to other indices [1][17]. 2. Refrigerant Market Review - Long-term contract prices for refrigerants such as R32 and R410A have increased, with R32 priced at 61,200 CNY/ton and R410A at 55,100 CNY/ton, reflecting increases of 1.66% and 3.57% respectively from the previous quarter [2][22]. - The domestic prices for R22, R125, and R134a have also seen increases, with R22 at 17,000 CNY/ton and R125 at 48,500 CNY/ton [24]. 3. Liquid Cooling Demand - The report highlights the urgent need for efficient cooling technologies in data centers, with liquid cooling solutions becoming a preferred choice due to their superior performance compared to traditional air cooling [3][64]. - The market for liquid cooling in data centers is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate of 51.4% expected from 2019 to 2027 [70]. 4. Refrigerant Quota Announcements - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has announced the 2026 refrigerant quotas, indicating a slight increase in production quotas for R32, R125, and R134a, while R141b's quota has been eliminated [4][79]. - The report anticipates that the stringent quota policies will continue to support the long-term growth of refrigerant products [4][74]. 5. Key Company Profit Forecasts - Key companies in the fluorochemical sector, such as Juhua Co., Dongyue Group, and Sanmei Co., are projected to achieve significant profit growth in 2025, with expected net profits increasing by 80%-176% year-on-year [4][10].

机构建议重点关注：1、传统化工龙头：供需改善+价格弹性品种，如PX/PTA、钾肥、TDI/MDI、 LiPF6；2、新材料成长赛道：如半导体电子化学品、数据中心冷却剂、商业航天材料（碳纤维、陶瓷封 装）等，受益于AI、新能源、商业航天等新兴产业需求爆发。 截至2026年2月5日 13:06，中证细分化工产业主题指数(000813)成分股方面涨跌互现，三棵树领涨 1.05%，广东宏大上涨0.84%，恒逸石化上涨0.42%；联泓新科领跌。化工ETF(159870)最新报价0.87元。 近期化工板块持续受到资金关注，化工ETF(159870)盘中净申购超4亿份，机构指出，主要因行业迎来多 重积极共振：价格指数自2025年12月触底回升，资本开支收缩，政策端"反内卷"加速落后产能出清，同 时海外高成本产能退出优化全球供给格局。 机构认为，此轮周期上涨支撑因素清晰： 盈利触底：行业经历4年调整，利润率已至历史低位，进一步下行空间有限； 政策驱动：国内"反内卷"与"双碳"政策严格控新增、清落后，部分子行业通过自律减产推动价格回升； 全球供给重塑：欧洲及日韩等高成本产能加速关停，2026-2027年全球乙烯、丙烯等核心产品 ...

每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 截至10:34，石化ETF（159731）跌1.88%，持仓股广东宏大、三美股份、巨化股份等涨幅居前。从 资金净流入方面来看，石化ETF（159731）近20个交易日资金净流入总计14.30亿元。石化ETF最新份 额达16.92亿份，最新规模17.06亿元。 据百川盈孚市场监测，2026年1月以来，第三代主流制冷剂R32均价稳定在6.3万元/吨，同比增长约 45%；R134a市场均价稳定在5.8万元/吨，同比增长32%；截至2月3日，R125、R410a分别同比增长16% 和29%，并且这两种制冷剂自2025年四季度以来均出现持续上涨趋势。在制冷剂量价齐升的带动下，近 期，巨化股份、三美股份、永和股份等制冷剂龙头企业均已披露亮眼的2025年业绩预告。 开源认为，随着A5国家进入配额基线年尾声，其对高GWP制冷剂的进口需求有望集中释放，有望 带动相关产品出口增长，并进一步拉动内贸市场，市场价格调整有待国内需求增量时机。整体来看，在 低库存、供给受限的背景下，随着后续需求逐步回暖，尤其是旺季来临，制冷剂价格上涨动能充足。 石化ETF（159731）及其联接基金（017855/ ...

截至2026年2月4日 15:00，中证石化产业指数(H11057)上涨0.41%，成分股中国石化上涨3.17%，三棵树 上涨3.09%，上海石化上涨2.94%，恒逸石化上涨2.34%，和邦生物上涨2.06%。化工行业ETF易方达 (516570)上涨0.37%，最新价报1.09元。拉长时间看，截至2026年2月3日，化工行业ETF易方达近2周累 计上涨0.55%，涨幅排名可比基金1/2。（以上所列股票仅为指数成份股，无特定推荐之意） 从资金净流入方面来看，化工行业ETF易方达近13天获得连续资金净流入，最高单日获得3.91亿元净流 入，合计"吸金"13.71亿元，日均净流入达1.05亿元。（数据来源：Wind） 流动性方面，化工行业ETF易方达盘中换手3.05%，成交4876.76万元。拉长时间看，截至2月3日，化工 行业ETF易方达近1周日均成交1.60亿元。 规模方面，化工行业ETF易方达最新规模达15.95亿元，创近1年新高。（数据来源：Wind） 份额方面，化工行业ETF易方达最新份额达14.66亿份，创近1年新高。（数据来源：Wind） 化工行业ETF易方达(516570)，场外联接(易方达中证石 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies including Xinyangfeng, Senqilin, Ruifeng New Materials, Sinopec, Juhua, Yangnong Chemical, CNOOC, Tongkun, Daotong Technology, and others [10]. Core Views - The report highlights significant price increases in products such as p-nitrochlorobenzene (up 27.91%) and LLDPE (up 24.72%), while products like natural gas and LDPE saw substantial declines [6][18]. - It suggests focusing on investment opportunities in areas such as import substitution, domestic demand, and high dividend stocks, particularly in light of fluctuating international oil prices [6][19]. - The report anticipates that international oil prices will stabilize around $65 per barrel in 2026, influenced by geopolitical uncertainties and expectations of price declines [19]. Summary by Sections Product Price Movements - Notable price increases this week include p-nitrochlorobenzene (27.91%), LLDPE (24.72%), and liquid chlorine (20.90) [18]. - Conversely, significant declines were observed in natural gas (-22.34%) and LDPE (-18.02%) [5][21]. Industry Performance - The chemical industry remains in a weak position overall, with mixed performance across sub-sectors due to past capacity expansions and weak demand [21]. - Specific sectors like the glyphosate industry are showing signs of potential recovery, with decreasing inventories and rising prices, suggesting a possible entry into a favorable cycle [21]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong competitive positions and growth potential, such as Ruifeng New Materials and Baofeng Energy [21]. - It emphasizes the importance of domestic chemical fertilizer and pesticide sectors, which are expected to maintain stable demand due to self-sufficiency [21]. - The report also highlights the benefits for major oil companies like Sinopec, which are expected to gain from lower raw material costs due to declining oil prices [21].

截至2026年2月3日13:47，中证石化产业指数强势上涨2.41%，成分股浙江龙盛上涨6.57%，光威复材上涨5.65%，华鲁恒升上涨5.33%，杭氧股份，亚钾国际 等个股跟涨。石化ETF(159731)上涨2.46%，最新价报1元。流动性方面，石化ETF盘中换手10.87%，成交1.78亿元，市场交投活跃。拉长时间看，截至2月2 日，石化ETF近1周日均成交3.22亿元。 从资金净流入方面来看，石化ETF近19天获得连续资金净流入，最高单日获得3.48亿元净流入，合计"吸金"14.13亿元。石化ETF最新份额达16.56亿份，创 新高。 截至2月2日，石化ETF近2年净值上涨64.55%。从收益能力看，截至2026年2月2日，石化ETF自成立以来，最高单月回报为15.86%，最长连涨月数为9个月， 最长连涨涨幅为60.75%，上涨月份平均收益率为5.59%。截至2026年2月2日，石化ETF近1年超越基准年化收益为2.26%。 自1月24日起席卷美国墨西哥湾沿岸的强烈冬季风暴，对全球最重要的化工生产基地之一得克萨斯州休斯敦周边地区造成了严重冲击。连日来，包括利安德 巴赛尔、塞拉尼斯、英力士等在内的多家跨国 ...