LuoLai Lifestyle Technology (002293) 新浪财经·2025-04-25 10:42Core Viewpoint - The company's performance for 2024 and Q1 2025 exceeded expectations, driven by a recovery in domestic home textile business and a reduction in losses from the U.S. furniture business [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For 2024, the company reported revenue of 4.559 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 433 million yuan, down 24.4% [1] - In Q1 2025, revenue reached 1.094 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.6% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 113 million yuan, up 26.3% [1] - The company plans to distribute a final cash dividend of 0.4 yuan per share, resulting in an annual cumulative dividend payout ratio of approximately 115%, corresponding to a dividend yield of about 7.2% based on the current stock price [1] Group 2: Domestic Home Textile Business - In 2024, domestic home textile revenue decreased by 12.4% to 3.737 billion yuan, with franchise revenue down 19.0% to 1.448 billion yuan due to proactive adjustments in franchise stores and inventory optimization [2] - The number of franchise stores decreased by 168 to 2,227, while direct sales revenue fell by 1.5% to 401 million yuan, with 76 new direct stores opened, totaling 411 [2] - Online revenue declined by 14.1% to 1.382 billion yuan, but Q1 2025 is expected to show positive growth in domestic home textile revenue, particularly in direct and online channels [2] - The gross profit margins for franchise, direct, and online channels improved by 1.4 percentage points, 0.3 percentage points, and 1.1 percentage points respectively, partly benefiting from rising raw material prices [2] - The net profit for the domestic home textile business in 2024 is projected to decrease by 13% to 462 million yuan, with expectations of growth in Q1 2025 [2] Group 3: U.S. Furniture Business - The U.S. furniture business reported a revenue decline of 21.5% to 822 million yuan in 2024, primarily impacted by the U.S. real estate cycle [3] - The business incurred a loss of 28.71 million yuan in 2024, with losses narrowing from 21.83 million yuan in the first half to 6.88 million yuan in the second half [3] - Q1 2025 is anticipated to show improvements in both revenue decline and loss reduction for the U.S. furniture business [3] Group 4: Inventory and Cash Flow - As of Q1 2025, inventory decreased by 24.3% to 981 million yuan, attributed to enhanced retail management and increased inventory clearance efforts [3] - The net cash flow from operating activities in Q1 2025 increased by 83.3% year-on-year to 176 million yuan, indicating strong cash flow [3] Group 5: Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain its efforts in opening direct model stores in 2025, with a gradual return to growth in franchise revenue as inventory adjustments near completion [4] - The U.S. furniture business is projected to continue reducing losses as inventory clearance progresses [4] Group 6: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025 has been raised by 9.6% to 513 million yuan, with a new forecast for 2026 set at 554 million yuan [5] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 13.6x for 2025 and 12.6x for 2026 [5] - The target price has been increased by 33.8% to 9.88 yuan, reflecting a potential upside of 18.1% based on 2025/26 P/E ratios of 16.0x/14.8x [5]