股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.08 优质消费布局正当时 [Table_Industry] 纺织服装业 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 盛开(分析师) | 021-23154510 | shengkai@gtht.com | S0880525040044 | | 钟启辉(研究助理) | 021-23185686 | zhongqihui@gtht.com | S0880125042254 | 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 纺织服装业《Coach 品牌势能全面爆发，中国市 场强势领跑，上调全年指引》2026.02.07 纺织服装业《FY26Q3 HOKA 重回高双增速，上 调全年业绩指引》2026.01.31 纺织服装业《25Q4 纺服基金持仓环比基本持平， 12 月服装类零售额同比增长 1.2%》2026.01.25 纺织服装业《美棉价格历史深度复盘——美国、 巴西 25/26 产量预期双降，美棉安全边际显现》 2026.01.20 纺织服装业《巴西棉结束近 5 年 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Insights - The report highlights the investment opportunities in the functional home textile and sports outdoor apparel sectors, particularly favoring companies like Luolai Life (002293, Buy) and Mercury Home Textile (603365, Buy) for home textiles, and Anta Sports (02020, Buy) and Li Ning (02331, Buy) for sports apparel [3][8] - The rise of domestic brands in the luxury goods sector is a significant trend, with local brands expanding from traditional categories into ready-to-wear, footwear, and leather goods, driven by generational shifts and cultural confidence among consumers [8] - High-net-worth individuals are shifting their clothing preferences from high luxury to practical and functional styles, providing long-term growth potential for the sports outdoor industry [8] - There is a notable opportunity in functional home textiles linked to sleep health, as high-net-worth individuals currently express low satisfaction with their sleep quality [8] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report recommends focusing on functional home textiles and sports outdoor apparel, highlighting specific companies for investment: Luolai Life (002293, Buy), Mercury Home Textile (603365, Buy), Anta Sports (02020, Buy), Li Ning (02331, Buy), and Xtep International (01368, Buy) [3] Industry Overview - The textile and apparel industry in China is experiencing a transformation, with a focus on functional and practical products that cater to the evolving preferences of high-net-worth consumers [8] - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in the home textile sector, particularly in products that enhance sleep quality, as consumer interest in sleep health increases [8]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [5] Core Insights - Anta announced on January 26, 2026, the acquisition of 29.06% of Puma SE for a total of €1.506 billion (approximately ¥12.278 billion), becoming its largest shareholder. This transaction is a key step in Anta's globalization strategy, aiming to integrate its operational capabilities with Puma's global platform, which has an annual revenue exceeding €8.8 billion (2024) [2][14] - Adidas achieved a record high revenue of €24.811 billion in 2025, with operating profit of €2.056 billion exceeding market expectations. The operating profit margin increased by 2.6 percentage points to 8.3%, and the gross profit margin rose to 51.6% [2][14] - VF Corporation reported a revenue of $2.82 billion in Q3 of FY2026, a 4% year-on-year increase (2% growth at constant currency), with a 6% growth in the Americas region after excluding the impact of the sold Dickies brand [3][14] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Manufacturing: Strong expectations for upstream price increases, with wool prices rising since Q3 2025 and domestic cotton prices also starting to rise. Recommended stocks include Baolong Oriental, New Australia, and Fuchun Dyeing & Weaving, with beneficiaries being Taihua New Materials. For growth-oriented midstream, recommended stocks are Jiansheng Group and Kairun Co [3][15] - Brand: Recent signs of recovery in high-end consumption, with potential inflation in 2026 benefiting the consumer sector. Recommended brands with profit elasticity include Jinhong Group, Ge Li Si, Luolai Life, and Stable Medical [3][15] - Procter & Gamble's industrial chain: Recommended stocks include Jieya Co (benefiting from brand-owned capacity transfer), with beneficiaries being Yanjing Co [3][15] Market Review - The SW textile and apparel sector rose by 0.64%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.08%. The top five gainers in the sector included Harsen Co, Zhongwang Fabric, Hongda High-Tech, Mingxin Xuteng, and Aokang International [16] - The main inflow of funds was into Harsen Co, with a net inflow ratio of 10.10%, while the largest outflow was from Sanfu Outdoor, with a net outflow ratio of 4.59% [16][22] Industry Data Tracking - Wool prices increased by 2.49% this week, with a year-to-date increase of 41.94%. The Australian wool market index reached 1689 AUD cents/kg, equivalent to ¥82,085.40/ton [4][35] - The cotton price index in China rose by 3.84% year-to-date, with the 3128B index at ¥16,183/ton [30][32] - In 2025, textile and apparel exports decreased by 2.26% year-on-year, with total exports amounting to $267.79 billion [52]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [7] Core Insights - December orders for sports footwear and apparel showed a month-on-month decline, indicating that the overall industry has not yet reached an inflection point. Retail performance in the US and UK remains resilient, while demand in other regions is stagnant. The decline in the US consumer confidence index has not yet impacted brand and upstream performance, primarily due to growth being driven by high-end consumption, with mass apparel consumption still expected to recover [2][4][21] - Vietnam's footwear and apparel exports improved significantly in December, while China continues to face pressure. The upstream manufacturing sector is expected to have stronger earnings certainty in the first half of 2026, with a clear direction for recovery in the downstream sports supply chain. Brand apparel revenues are expected to fluctuate in Q4 2025, with profitability anticipated to recover in 2026 [2][5][29] Summary by Sections Manufacturing Performance - In December, the revenue performance of footwear manufacturers showed a year-on-year decline, with specific companies reporting: - Yuanyuan Group: -3.7% YoY, -1.3 percentage points MoM - Fengtai: -0.6% YoY, +11.2 percentage points MoM - Zhijiang International: -2.8% YoY, -5.9% MoM - Yuchi-KY: -2.2% YoY, -8.8% MoM - For apparel manufacturers: - Ruhong: -3.6% YoY, -5.1% MoM - Juyang Industrial: -9.2% YoY, -9.7% MoM - Guangyue: +9.7% YoY, -22.1% MoM [4][16][29] Demand Analysis - Retail performance in December showed resilience in the US and UK, while other regions experienced stagnation. The US consumer confidence index continues to decline, which has not yet reflected in brand and upstream performance. The growth is mainly driven by high-end consumption, with mass apparel consumption still expected to recover [2][21][26] Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on upstream manufacturing, as the performance in the first half of 2026 is expected to be more certain. The recovery direction of the sports supply chain is clear. Key recommended stocks include: - New Australia Holdings, Crystal International, Shenzhou International, and Yuanyuan Group - Attention should also be given to high-elasticity stocks like Nobon and Jeya, as well as undervalued stocks with strong safety margins like Taihua New Materials and Lutai A [5][29][30]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the textile and apparel industry [1]. Core Insights - In Q4 2025, the textile and apparel fund holdings remained stable, with a year-on-year growth of 1.2% in clothing retail sales in December, indicating a slowdown in growth compared to the previous month [3][4]. - The report highlights structural opportunities in exports and notes that the retail data from the U.S. shows resilience, with a continuous decrease in the inventory-to-sales ratio for clothing [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Data Tracking - In December 2025, the retail sales of clothing increased by 1.2%, while textile and apparel exports decreased by 7.4% [18]. - The total retail sales of consumer goods in China increased by 0.9% year-on-year, with clothing and accessories retail sales growing by 1.2% [20]. - The textile and apparel export value for December 2025 was approximately $25.992 billion, down 7.4% year-on-year [20]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong competitive advantages through diversified production capacity and highlights the importance of order cycle management [4]. - Recommended stocks include: - Bailing Oriental (百隆东方) [16] - Chaoying International Holdings (超盈国际控股) [16] - Anta Sports (安踏体育) [16] - Li Ning (李宁) [16] - Xtep International (特步国际) [16] - Prada (普拉达) [16] - Samsonite (新秀丽) [16] - Jiangnan Buyi (江南布衣) [16] - Taobo (滔搏) [16] - The report emphasizes the potential for mid-to-high-end product orders to show resilience and the positive outlook for cotton prices benefiting related cotton spinning enterprises [4].

Market Performance - The apparel and home textile sector increased by 0.67% compared to the previous trading day, with Sanfu Outdoor leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4136.16, up 0.33%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14439.66, up 0.79% [1] Top Gainers - Sanfu Outdoor (002780) closed at 16.72, up 10.00%, with a trading volume of 366,100 shares and a transaction value of 589 million yuan [1] - Zhiyaomeijia (003041) also rose by 10.00%, closing at 63.26, with a transaction value of 396 million yuan [1] - Other notable gainers include Bangjie Co. (002634) up 5.71% and ST Bosen (002569) up 5.01% [1] Top Losers - Aokang International (603001) saw a decline of 6.79%, closing at 9.47, with a trading volume of 368,900 shares and a transaction value of 361 million yuan [2] - Other significant declines include Jiemai Co. (301088) down 2.46% and Luolai Life (002293) down 2.44% [2] Capital Flow - The apparel and home textile sector experienced a net outflow of 48.84 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 160 million yuan [2] - The overall capital flow indicates a mixed sentiment, with institutional investors pulling back while retail investors are more active [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Sanfu Outdoor had a net inflow of 13.7 million yuan from institutional investors, but saw significant outflows from both retail and speculative investors [3] - Other stocks like Explorer (300005) and Zhiyaomeijia (003041) also experienced net outflows from speculative investors, indicating a cautious approach among this group [3]

Investment Rating - The textile and apparel industry is rated as "Neutral" for the upcoming period, indicating that the industry is expected to perform in line with the overall market [9]. Core Insights - The report highlights a divergence in performance within the textile and apparel sector, with high-end outdoor and niche sports brands showing strong potential despite an overall slowdown in demand [3]. - Domestic retail sales for clothing and textiles reached 1.52 trillion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, with a notable slowdown in December due to warmer winter temperatures [3]. - Export figures for the textile and apparel sector showed a decline, with total exports amounting to 293.8 billion USD, down 2.6% year-on-year, indicating a shift in supply chain dynamics towards countries like Vietnam [3]. Summary by Sections Domestic Demand - Retail sales for clothing and textiles in China reached 1.52 trillion yuan in 2025, with growth rates of 6.3%, 3.5%, and 0.6% in October, November, and December respectively [3]. - The warmer winter led to a slowdown in winter clothing sales, impacting overall performance [3]. International Demand - Textile and apparel exports totaled 293.8 billion USD in 2025, with textiles at 142.6 billion USD (up 0.4%) and apparel at 151.2 billion USD (down 5.2%) [3]. - Vietnam's textile exports grew by 7.0%, indicating a shift in orders due to tariff policies affecting different production regions [3]. Brand Performance - High-end outdoor brands and niche sports brands are expected to maintain strong growth, while traditional brands like Anta and Li Ning are projected to see varied performance, with Anta's revenue expected to decline slightly [3]. - Women's apparel is facing challenges, but companies like Xinha and Ge Li Si are expected to show improvements in profitability due to prior adjustments [3]. Home Textiles - Companies like Luolai and Water Mercury are expected to perform steadily, while Fuanna is still in a destocking phase [3]. Non-woven Fabric Industry - The non-woven fabric sector is anticipated to benefit from quality upgrades and expanding demand, with companies like Nuo Bang and Yan Jiang expected to see significant revenue growth [3]. Textile Manufacturing - The report notes that the performance of the sports manufacturing chain is under pressure due to fluctuations in brand orders, but the Australian wool industry is expected to see a rebound in demand and pricing [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-performance outdoor brands, discount retail, personal care, and sleep economy sectors for potential investment opportunities [3].

Investment Rating - The textile and apparel industry is rated as "Overweight" indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the overall market [4][10]. Core Insights - The report highlights a divergence in performance within the brand apparel sector, with expectations for growth in the non-woven fabric manufacturing segment and opportunities in the Australian wool cycle [4]. - Domestic demand for apparel has shown a modest increase, with retail sales of clothing, shoes, and textiles reaching 1.52 trillion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.2% [4]. - Export figures indicate a decline, with textile and apparel exports totaling $293.8 billion in 2025, down 2.6% year-on-year, while Vietnam's textile exports grew by 7% [4]. Summary by Sections Domestic Demand - Retail sales for clothing, shoes, and textiles in China reached 1.52 trillion yuan in 2025, with monthly growth rates of 6.3%, 3.5%, and 0.6% in October, November, and December respectively [4]. - The warm winter weather has negatively impacted winter apparel sales [4]. Export Demand - Textile and apparel exports amounted to $293.8 billion in 2025, with textiles at $142.6 billion (up 0.4%) and clothing at $151.2 billion (down 5.2%) [4]. - Vietnam's textile exports were $39.6 billion (up 7%) and footwear exports were $24.2 billion (up 5.8%), indicating a shift in the textile supply chain [4]. Brand Performance - High-end outdoor and niche sports brands are expected to maintain strong growth despite overall industry slowdowns [4]. - Anta, FILA, and outdoor brands are projected to see sales declines in Q4 2025, while brands like 361 Degrees are expected to grow by 10% [4]. Children and Women's Apparel - Women's apparel is facing challenges, but companies like Xinha and Ge Li Si are expected to show improvements in revenue and profitability [4]. - Men's apparel, particularly Haian, is projected to grow by 5% in revenue [4]. Home Textiles - Fuanna is still in a destocking phase, while companies like Luolai and Water Mercury are expected to perform steadily [4]. Non-Woven Fabric Industry - The non-woven fabric sector is benefiting from quality upgrades and expanding demand, with companies like Wanjian and Nuo Bang expected to see revenue growth of 10% to 20% [4]. Textile Manufacturing - The report notes that brands like Nike are experiencing performance fluctuations, impacting the manufacturing chain, while the Australian wool industry is expected to see price increases due to reduced supply and rising demand [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-performance outdoor brands, discount retail, personal care, and sleep economy sectors for potential investment opportunities [4]. - Companies like Anta, Li Ning, and Tebu are highlighted as key players to watch [4].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for several companies including Shenzhou International, Huayi Group, Anta Sports, and Li Ning, with respective 2026 PE ratios of 12x and 15x for Shenzhou International and Huayi Group [2][9][26]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel industry is experiencing a mixed performance, with some companies showing resilience while others face challenges due to fluctuating orders and profit margins [1][3]. - The report anticipates a cautious improvement in downstream orders for 2026, supported by healthy inventory levels and strong sales performance from certain brands [2][20]. - The sportswear segment is expected to outperform the broader apparel market, driven by strong inventory management and long-term growth potential [3][26]. Summary by Sections Recent Revenue Performance - Several apparel manufacturers reported their 2025 revenue, with Feng Tai Enterprises, Ru Hong, and Yu Yuan Group showing year-on-year changes of -4.5%, +3.2%, and +0.5% respectively for the full year [1][12]. - In December 2025, Feng Tai Enterprises, Ru Hong, and Yu Yuan Group reported monthly revenues down by -0.6%, -3.6%, and -3.7% respectively [1][12]. Industry Outlook - The report indicates a weakening industry sentiment since H2 2025, with Southeast Asia's export performance continuing to surpass that of China [2][17]. - For 2026, the report expects cautious improvements in orders, with a focus on core brand performance and inventory management [20]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Shenzhou International and Huayi Group, with Shenzhou International expected to achieve a 10% revenue growth in 2025 and Huayi Group's profits anticipated to recover gradually [2][25]. - Other companies to watch include Wei Xing Co., Kai Run Co., and Jing Yuan International, which are expected to benefit from the anticipated recovery in orders [2][26]. Market Performance - The textile and apparel sector has underperformed compared to the broader market, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index down by 0.57% while the textile manufacturing sector fell by 0.77% [30].

Core Viewpoint - Ronglai Life is a leading enterprise in China's home textile industry, focusing on "super soft bedding" positioning and implementing a multi-brand, omnichannel development strategy, while maintaining a high dividend payout ratio for shareholder returns [1] Industry Summary - The home textile industry, as a daily consumer goods sector, is experiencing steady expansion in scale [1] - The awakening demand for sleep health and the deepening penetration of online channels are driving industry transformation [1] - Products with technological barriers and exceptional experiences, referred to as "big single products," are key for brand breakthroughs [1] Company Summary - The company's explosive product strategy has shown significant effectiveness, with online and offline channels working in synergy [1] - The big single product strategy has achieved substantial breakthroughs [1] - The furniture business is stabilizing and is expected to contribute to performance elasticity [1] - Given the company's leading position in the home textile industry, the growth elasticity brought by the big single product strategy, and the potential for multi-channel collaborative recovery, the company is rated as "buy" for the first coverage [1]