中 泰 证 券 研 究 所 专 业 ｜ 领 先 ｜ 深 度 ｜ 诚 信 ｜ 证 券 研 究 报 告 ｜ 2026年轻纺新消费年度策略：立足优质供给，强则不败 2 0 2 5 . 1 2 . 1 6 张潇 执业证书编号：S0740523030001 郭美鑫 执业证书编号：S0740520090002 邹文婕 执业证书编号：S0740523070001 吴思涵 执业证书编号：S0740523090002 核心观点 立足消费预期重大分歧此刻，我们坚定看好立足于优质供给的消费赛道新机遇： 1）"新消费升级"不止于2025。 新消费的本质是供给驱动的一轮"新消费升级"。不同于16-20年的上一轮消费升级，背后是投资、金融驱动的提价逻辑，本轮新消费升级的内 核是优质供给。存量时代，优质供给不单是制造的降本和"内卷"，而是创新和用户思维：从发现新需求入手，实现和消费者的双向奔赴。除 了IP潮玩、宠物等已被市场认知的成功范式，我们还看到：科技睡眠、人体工学椅、户外运动（港股运动）、IP文具等品类的蓬勃势头。立足 2026年，我们会看到更多优质供给和需求的拟合，供给驱动的新消费升级不会止步于2025。 2）从"反内卷"到"向外 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends "Buy" for Shenzhou International and Huali Group, with respective 2026 PE ratios of 12x and 18x [2][30]. Core Views - The textile and apparel industry is experiencing fluctuations in revenue, with notable declines in some manufacturers' performance due to changing international trade environments and tariff policies [1][13]. - The report anticipates a recovery in orders and shipments for apparel manufacturers in 2026, driven by improved demand and healthy inventory levels [23][28]. - Key brands like Nike are expected to show gradual improvement in their operational performance, which may positively impact their suppliers [23][24]. Summary by Sections Recent Revenue Performance - In November 2025, revenue for Feng Tai Enterprises, Ruo Hong, and Yu Yuan Group decreased by 11.8%, increased by 1.5%, and decreased by 2.4% year-on-year, respectively [1][13]. - Cumulatively from January to November 2025, Feng Tai's revenue declined by 4.9%, while Ruo Hong and Yu Yuan reported increases of 3.8% and 0.9% [1][13]. Industry Outlook - The report indicates that the apparel manufacturing sector is expected to see a recovery in orders in 2026, with a focus on companies with integrated and international supply chains [28][29]. - The report highlights that the competitive landscape is improving, with leading manufacturers likely to gain market share [2][27]. Key Investment Opportunities - Recommended stocks include Shenzhou International and Huali Group, with a focus on companies that are expected to benefit from improved customer trends and operational efficiencies [2][28]. - Other companies to watch include Weixing Co., Kairun Co., and Jingyuan International, which are also positioned well for future growth [2][28]. Brand Performance - The report emphasizes the importance of brand performance, particularly for Nike in the Greater China region, which is expected to show a turnaround [28]. - Other recommended brands include Anta Sports and Li Ning, with respective 2026 PE ratios of 14x and 16x [28].

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 股 票 研 究 11 月制造台企营收表现分化，lululemon 北美 仍承压、CEO 将于 26 年 1 月卸任 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 盛开(分析师) | 021-23154510 | shengkai@gtht.com | S0880525040044 | | 钟启辉(研究助理) | 021-23185686 | zhongqihui@gtht.com | S0880125042254 | 本报告导读： 11 月制造台企营收表现分化。25Q3 lululemon 业绩超预期，中国大陆市场领增，北 美市场仍承压。lululemon CEO 将于 26 年 1 月卸任，预计 26 春季新品占比达到 35%。 投资要点： 报 告 [Table_Report] 相关报告 纺织服装业《美国黑五零售增长 4.1%、11 月航 空出行人数微降 0.7%，INDITEX 25Q3 收入增长 加速》2025.12.07 纺织服装业《9 月美国服饰零售同比增长 6.7%， 海外 K ...

近日，江苏省工业和信息化厅公布第二批省级制造业领航企业名单，中国家纺龙头企业罗莱生活 （002293.SZ）成功入选。 公开资料显示，罗莱生活科技股份有限公司成立于1992年，主营家纺产品的研发、生产和销售。公司于 2009年上市，是国内首家上市的床上用品企业。中华全国商业信息中心统计数据显示，"罗莱"床上用品 在全国重点大型零售企业商品销售调查中，连续20年（2005—2024年）位列同类产品市场综合占有率第 一。 在智能化转型方面，公司相关布局不仅覆盖生产环节，也延伸至产业链协同。罗莱生活通过成立企业研 究院，围绕"超柔"相关技术体系开展研究，并与科研机构合作培育专属棉种，用于原材料研发和应用。 同时，公司依托"黄金准则"质量管理体系，将智能化手段应用于质量管理，并曾获评"江苏省省长质量 奖"。 公司表示，此次入选省级制造业领航企业，标志着罗莱生活在技术创新、产业带动方面的成果获得官方 认可。未来，公司将继续深化智能制造与绿色制造融合，通过"龙头引领、聚合共生"模式，带动南通高 端纺织产业集群向千亿级规模迈进，为江苏建设制造强省贡献"罗莱方案"。（齐和宁） 在生产制造方面，罗莱生活近年来持续推进智能化、数 ...

Core Insights - The report is optimistic about the recovery of upstream orders and emphasizes the importance of brands that can adapt and innovate in response to consumer needs [2][19]. Brand Apparel - The domestic brand apparel industry has entered a phase of stock competition, with limited growth opportunities. The performance of leading brands is increasingly reliant on their ability to attract consumers rather than on channel expansion [2][19]. - Three key areas for growth are identified: new home textiles, functional apparel, and strongly differentiated brands. Notable recommendations include: - New Home Textiles: Driven by the sleep economy and self-care consumption, brands like Mercury Home Textiles and Luolai Life are expected to perform well [2]. - Functional Apparel: Brands such as Anta Sports, Li Ning, and Bosideng are positioned to benefit from the growing health and outdoor lifestyle trends [2]. - Strongly Differentiated Brands: Companies like Cotton Era, focusing on 100% cotton products, are experiencing rapid growth [2]. - High dividend stocks recommended include Hailan Home, Luolai Life, and Semir Apparel [2]. Textile Manufacturing - The report notes a decrease in uncertainty regarding tariff policies, stabilization in European and American retail, and low inventory levels among international brands, suggesting a potential recovery in upstream orders [2][19]. - Recommendations for textile manufacturing companies include Shenzhou International, Weixing Co., and Huali Group, with a focus on high dividend stocks like Yuyuan Group and Jingyuan International [2]. Market Performance Review - The textile and apparel sector has seen a slight underperformance compared to the broader market, with a year-to-date increase of 12.45% as of December 9, 2025, compared to a 16.84% increase in the CSI 300 index [7][10]. - The apparel and home textile segments have shown similar performance, while the accessories segment has outperformed, with a 17.1% increase [13][14]. Consumer Environment - The domestic consumption environment remains weak, with apparel retail performance lagging behind overall retail growth. For instance, the cumulative year-on-year growth for apparel retail was only 2.9% from January to October 2025 [27][23]. - The consumer confidence index has shown a slight recovery but remains at historical low levels, indicating ongoing challenges in consumer spending [25][27]. Company Performance - The report highlights that many key apparel companies have experienced revenue declines, while a few have maintained growth. For example, companies like Anta, Li Ning, and Bosideng have shown consistent revenue expansion [30][32]. - The profitability of the brand apparel sector has been under pressure, with net profits not keeping pace with revenue growth in many cases [28][32].

格隆汇12月10日丨罗莱生活(002293.SZ)在投资者互动平台表示，截止目前，罗莱生活间接持有南通市 罗莱梧桐投资管理有限公司49%的股份。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies such as Shenzhou International and Huali Group, with specific price-to-earnings (PE) ratios projected for 2026 [9][38]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel industry is experiencing a weak recovery in the Chinese consumer market, while the U.S. and European markets show steady growth. The overall industry inventory is considered healthy, with expectations for upstream order growth driven by stable downstream replenishment [31][32]. - The report highlights the strong performance of direct-to-consumer (DTC) channels in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly in China, where DTC revenue growth is driven by e-commerce [18][23]. - Key investment themes include a focus on high-quality stocks in apparel manufacturing, brand apparel with stable growth or reversal logic, and strong alpha candidates in the gold and jewelry sector [21][22][33]. Summary by Sections Weekly Topic - PVH Group reported a 2% year-over-year revenue increase for FY2025Q3, reaching $2.294 billion, with a notable decline in gross margin due to increased tariffs and a challenging promotional environment [1][14]. Regional Performance - Asia-Pacific: FY2025Q3 revenue decreased by 1% year-over-year, but DTC business showed low single-digit growth, particularly in China [18][23]. - EMEA: Revenue grew by 4% year-over-year, but DTC and wholesale businesses faced declines due to a weak consumer environment [23]. - Americas: Revenue increased by 2%, driven by adjustments in the women's product line, although direct sales faced challenges [23]. Investment Themes - **Apparel Manufacturing**: Recommendations include Shenzhou International (PE of 12x) and Huali Group (PE of 18x), with expectations for improved core customer orders in 2026 [21][31]. - **Brand Apparel**: Focus on companies like Tmall and Anta Sports, with PE ratios of 15x and 16x respectively, and a recommendation for Bosideng (PE of 14x) [21][32]. - **Gold and Jewelry**: Companies like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Hong Ki are highlighted for their strong product differentiation and brand strength, with PE ratios of 17x and 21x respectively [22][33]. Recent Reports - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining a long-term perspective in the apparel manufacturing sector, with expectations for revenue growth exceeding 10% CAGR from 2025 to 2026 for Shenzhou International [34][38].

Group 1: New Consumption - The report emphasizes the continuous exploration of new products, channels, and brand changes within the new consumption sector, highlighting the resilience of leading companies despite market concerns about revenue growth and profit realization in 2026 [8][15][9] - Key sectors include eyewear, with a focus on AI and AR technologies, recommending companies like 康耐特光学 for their innovative approaches [18][30] - The潮玩 (trendy toys) sector is noted for its high growth potential, particularly with brands like 泡泡玛特 and their successful IP strategies [34][38] - The personal care and household cleaning segment is undergoing a transformation, driven by the rise of platforms like 抖音, which enhances brand visibility and sales conversion [54][55] Group 2: Export Chain - The report identifies the light industry export chain as a key area, emphasizing the importance of high pricing power, market diversification, and mature overseas production capabilities [10] - Recommendations include关注匠心家居, 共创草坪, and other companies that demonstrate strong performance in international markets [10] Group 3: Cyclical Opportunities - The report suggests a focus on quality leaders in the cyclical sector, particularly in home textiles and furniture, where companies like 水星家纺 and 欧派家居 are highlighted for their strong market positions [11][11] - The report notes the increasing differentiation within the home goods market, recommending companies that offer value and competitive pricing [11]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongfang Securities highlights the significant effectiveness of the explosive product strategy and expresses optimism about the sustainability of Luolai Life's future performance growth [1] Group 1: Product Strategy and Performance - Luolai Life has been actively exploring product and model innovations, launching the "Zero Pressure Deep Sleep Pillow" for the 2024 Double Eleven and the "Seamless Sleep Bed Cover" for 2025, amidst a generally weak consumer environment [1] - The explosive product strategy has shown remarkable results, with revenue and profit growth of 9.9% and 50% respectively in Q3 of this year [1] - The company's main brand ranked among the top during the previous Double Eleven event, establishing a solid foundation for Q4 performance [1] Group 2: Market Impact and Investment Value - The explosive products not only drive their own sales but also effectively expand the customer base and boost sales of other products [1] - The company has consistently maintained high cash dividends, which are expected to continue, further enhancing its investment value [1] - Based on comparable companies, a 15x PE valuation for 2026 is suggested, corresponding to a target price of 11.34 yuan, with a maintained "Buy" rating [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's performance is gradually improving, with high dividend expectations likely to continue [4] - The effectiveness of the explosive product strategy is significant, and future performance growth is anticipated [5] Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue for 2023 is projected at 5,315 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.0% - For 2024, revenue is expected to decline by 14.2% to 4,559 million yuan, followed by an increase of 8.4% in 2025 to 4,943 million yuan - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 572 million yuan in 2023, decreasing to 433 million yuan in 2024, and then increasing to 529 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.3% [6][9][11] Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.63 yuan in 2025, 0.76 yuan in 2026, and 0.87 yuan in 2027, with adjustments made based on recent reports [6][9] - The target price is set at 11.34 yuan, based on a 15 times PE valuation for 2026 [6][9] Market Performance - The company has shown a 17.3% absolute performance increase over the last 12 months, outperforming the market benchmark [2]