锌：库存去化支撑现货，长期价格重心仍有压力

Core Viewpoint - Zinc prices have been experiencing volatility following significant tariff announcements, with long-term price pressures remaining unchanged despite short-term fluctuations in supply and demand dynamics [1] Group 1: Processing Fees and Production Recovery - Zinc ore processing fees have increased significantly, with domestic processing fees at 3,450 CNY/ton and imported fees at 35 USD/ton, marking increases of 2,000 CNY and 75 USD from historical lows [2] - The rise in processing fees is attributed to a substantial year-on-year increase in imported zinc ore, which rose by 37% to 1.22 million tons in the first quarter [2] - Domestic smelting profits have improved, with average profits for domestic ore at 904 CNY/ton and imported ore at 575 CNY/ton, leading to a gradual resumption of production in smelters that had previously halted operations [2] Group 2: Demand and Economic Outlook - Current demand for zinc remains subdued, primarily maintaining existing levels without significant growth expectations, influenced by mixed economic growth across major economies [3] - The U.S. government's tariff measures have raised concerns about potential economic recession, although temporary relief has been provided through tariff exemptions [3] - Domestic economic policies are focused on stability, with limited expectations for significant boosts in traditional sectors like infrastructure and real estate [3] Group 3: Inventory Dynamics - Domestic social inventory of zinc has decreased significantly, reaching a low of 85,800 tons, while LME inventory stands at 182,300 tons, indicating ongoing inventory depletion [4] - The recent drop in zinc prices has prompted downstream industries to replenish their inventories, contributing to the continued reduction of social inventory [4] Group 4: Price Structure and Future Outlook - The near-term zinc contracts are trading stronger than long-term contracts, with a price spread of approximately 600, indicating a deepening backwardation [5] - Despite short-term price fluctuations, the long-term outlook for zinc prices remains under pressure due to anticipated increases in global refined zinc production and a potential oversupply situation [6] - The demand for zinc is closely tied to macroeconomic growth, with a stable global economy expected to maintain demand levels, while trade conflicts could lead to a decline in demand [6]