黄金“技术性回调”的理由：三大指标都指向“调整”，甚至“幅度不小”？

Group 1 - Recent surge in gold prices has reached a historical high of over $3,500, attracting global investor attention [1] - The Composite Regional Fed Planned Capex Index has recently dropped below -4, indicating potential economic slowdown [3][6] - Historical data shows that when this index falls significantly into negative territory, actual core capital goods orders tend to decline sharply, reflecting the impact of tariff policies on the real economy [4] Group 2 - Nomura's report indicates that three key indicators are signaling a potential "technical correction" in the gold market, with the adjustment possibly being substantial [7] - The report highlights that when the Composite Regional Fed Planned Capex Index drops below -4, gold performance tends to be poor in the following two months [8] Group 3 - A significant anomaly in fund flows has been observed, with GLD experiencing over 95% historical levels of inflow followed by a similar level of outflow, indicating potential panic selling among late investors [10][11] - Historical patterns suggest that such "big in, big out" scenarios have preceded gold price corrections, typically within the next two months [11] Group 4 - Technical analysis shows that gold prices are currently more than 25% above the 200-day moving average, a level described as "pretty absurd," indicating a need for market correction [14][15] - Historical data indicates that significant deviations from the 200-day moving average often lead to noticeable corrections in gold prices within the subsequent two months [15] Group 5 - Recent data indicates that investors withdrew $1.27 billion from the SPDR Gold ETF, marking the largest single-day outflow since 2011, coinciding with gold prices reaching historical highs [13] - The 2011 outflow was associated with the peak of the last super cycle in gold, leading to a prolonged consolidation period until 2020, providing a historical reference for current market conditions [13]