TMGM:高盛首席经济学家表示美元还有进一步下跌空间

Group 1 - The core observation is that the current high valuation of the US dollar, which is nearly two standard deviations above its historical average since the floating exchange rate era began in 1973, raises concerns about a potential significant depreciation of the dollar, similar to past occurrences in the mid-1980s and early 2000s [1] - The strong dollar is supported by a continuous influx of investment funds into US assets, with non-US investors holding approximately $22 trillion in US assets, accounting for about one-third of their total investment portfolios, predominantly in equities [3] - A potential reduction in non-US investors' exposure to US assets could lead to severe depreciation of the dollar, as the US must balance its annual current account deficit of $1.1 trillion with equivalent net capital inflows [3] Group 2 - The future strength of the dollar largely depends on the performance of the US economy, with recent downgrades in GDP growth forecasts by Goldman Sachs indicating a decline from 1% to 0.5% for the fourth quarter of 2024 compared to the same period this year [4] - Despite the depreciation pressures, the dollar's status as the world's dominant currency is unlikely to be undermined unless faced with extreme shocks, as historical fluctuations have not diminished its core position in the global monetary system [4]