这位大佬称，特朗普高关税“撑不过三个月”，为什么？

Group 1 - Mahathir criticizes the high tariff policy of the Trump administration, predicting it will not last more than three months due to rising living costs leading to widespread protests among the American populace [1][4] - The U.S. economy's deep reliance on global supply chains is highlighted, with Mahathir noting that the country has "almost no domestic products," leading to a hollowing out of local manufacturing [3][4] - The imposition of high tariffs could result in significant price increases for American consumers, particularly for products like the iPhone, which relies heavily on overseas production [3][4] Group 2 - The anticipated nationwide protests in the U.S. in April 2025 are linked to rising prices, stock market declines, and shrinking retirement funds, reflecting the real impact of the trade war on American citizens [4][6] - Mahathir argues that the Trump administration's tariffs may backfire, creating three major challenges: overcoming cost disadvantages, increasing inflation, and the risk of global supply chain disruptions [4][6] - The U.S. stock market has already seen a significant decline, with a loss of $6.6 trillion in market value due to the tariff policies, indicating the immediate economic repercussions [4][6] Group 3 - Despite widespread protests, Trump maintains a high approval rating among Republican voters, and there is no unified opposition within the party against the tariff policies [6][7] - The slow response of the government to the negative economic impacts of tariffs is noted, with decision-making processes being influenced by public opinion and lobbying from interest groups [6][7] - Mahathir's critique reflects a broader concern about the decline of American hegemony and the potential ineffectiveness of unilateral pressure on China in trade negotiations [6][7] Group 4 - The conflict between globalization and protectionism is underscored, with Mahathir's predictions highlighting the structural contradictions within the U.S. economy [9] - The Trump administration faces a "triple paradox" involving insufficient domestic production, rising inflation pressures, and the political divide between populist movements and elite consensus [9] - The challenge for the Trump administration lies not only in the potential repeal of tariffs but in finding a way to exit the economic conflict without triggering a systemic crisis [9]