王健林说中了！2025年楼市变局已至，这4个信号或将超乎预料

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is expected to face significant declines in 2024, with the era of continuous price increases coming to an end. The market is experiencing a systemic turning point rather than a short-term adjustment [1][3]. Market Trends - Many cities in China, including Guangzhou, are witnessing a continuous decline in real estate transaction volumes, with an oversupply of listings leading to price drops. For instance, Guangzhou has over 130,000 second-hand homes listed but very few transactions [3]. - The aging population and declining birth rates are likely to further reduce housing demand, making it difficult for prices to rise [3]. Developer Challenges - Developers are under financial strain, with some properties being sold at steep discounts, such as a 50% reduction in certain cases. This pressure is leading to unfinished projects, or "ghost buildings," which erodes buyer confidence [1][3][4]. - The prevalence of unfinished buildings is damaging the overall credibility of the real estate market, causing potential buyers to hesitate due to fears of investing in problematic properties [4]. Price-to-Income Ratio - The price-to-income ratio in many third and fourth-tier cities exceeds 15, with some even reaching 20. In first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai, families may need to save for 40 years to afford a home, indicating a significant imbalance [6]. Policy Impact - Government policies aimed at curbing rapid price increases and preventing market risks include purchase restrictions, loan limits, and increased supply of affordable housing. These measures are changing market expectations and making buyers more cautious [6][9]. - The ongoing policy adjustments have shifted public perception, leading to a more rational approach to home buying, as the belief that prices will only rise has been challenged [9]. Future Outlook - The current market adjustment is not yet at its bottom, and potential buyers are advised to focus on stability and quality of living rather than speculative investments. Those holding multiple properties should consider selling to avoid future losses [9].