豆粕棕榈油：走势多因素交织 成本与需求

Core Viewpoint - Domestic soybean meal experienced a rise and subsequent decline, with spot prices significantly increasing to a high of 3930 yuan/ton, while the market anticipates a trend of inventory accumulation in the next three months, leading to cautious purchasing from downstream sectors [1] Group 1: Soybean Meal Market - The trading volume of soybean meal was 112,600 tons, indicating weak purchasing activity, with expectations of recovery to 39.02% in the current week and a crushing volume of 1.3883 million tons [1] - The cost range for the May soybean meal contract is between 2750 - 2850 yuan/ton, while the September contract is between 2850 - 3000 yuan/ton, reflecting market dynamics influenced by trade tensions and macroeconomic conditions [1] - The domestic soybean meal market is under pressure due to inventory accumulation trends, with costs influenced by port prices, leading to expectations of a fluctuating downward trend in the medium term [1] Group 2: Palm Oil Market - Malaysian palm oil exports are projected to increase by approximately 20% - 50% in the first ten days of April, with a month-on-month increase of 13.5% - 17% by April 15 [1] - The palm oil market is experiencing low prices due to U.S. tariffs and increased production, although low inventory levels and improved export figures in April provide some support [1] - The domestic palm oil market shows fluctuating basis prices, with the Guangzhou palm oil basis at 340 yuan/ton and Jiangsu first-grade soybean oil basis at 380 yuan/ton, indicating a mixed market sentiment [1]