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Tesla Stock Investors: Elon Musk Expects 99% Market Share in This Trillion-Dollar Industry
TSLATesla(TSLA) The Motley Fool·2025-04-27 07:50

Core Viewpoint - Tesla reported disappointing financial results in Q1, with declines in deliveries, revenue, operating margin, and earnings, losing market share in key regions [1] - Despite the financial setbacks, CEO Elon Musk announced plans to launch Tesla's first robotaxi service in Austin by June, expressing confidence in achieving a dominant market share [1] Group 1: Market Potential - Autonomous ride-sharing is projected to become a trillion-dollar market, with Straits Research estimating the ride-sharing market will exceed 820billionby2033[3]−MorganStanleysuggeststhattheU.S.marketforautonomousride−sharingcouldexceed820 billion by 2033 [3] - Morgan Stanley suggests that the U.S. market for autonomous ride-sharing could exceed 1 trillion annually, while Ark Invest forecasts the global robotaxi market could reach 11trillionby2030[4]Group2:CompetitiveLandscape−Waymoiscurrentlytheleaderintheautonomousride−sharingmarket,havinglaunchedservicesinmultiplecitiessince2020andproviding250,000ridesperweek[5]−Teslaplanstolaunchitsautonomousride−sharingserviceinAustinbyJune,withfurtherexpansionstootherU.S.cities,despiteWaymo′sestablishedpresence[6]Group3:TechnologicalAdvantages−MuskbelievesTesla′sdataadvantage,derivedfrommillionsofsensor−equippedvehicles,willenablethecompanytodevelopsuperiorAImodelsforautonomousdriving[7]−Waymo′srelianceonexpensivesensorsandmeticulouscitymappinglimitsitsscalability,withcostsforequipmentontheirrobotaxisreachingupto11 trillion by 2030 [4] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Waymo is currently the leader in the autonomous ride-sharing market, having launched services in multiple cities since 2020 and providing 250,000 rides per week [5] - Tesla plans to launch its autonomous ride-sharing service in Austin by June, with further expansions to other U.S. cities, despite Waymo's established presence [6] Group 3: Technological Advantages - Musk believes Tesla's data advantage, derived from millions of sensor-equipped vehicles, will enable the company to develop superior AI models for autonomous driving [7] - Waymo's reliance on expensive sensors and meticulous city mapping limits its scalability, with costs for equipment on their robotaxis reaching up to 100,000 [8] - Tesla's Cybercab is expected to cost less than $30,000, utilizing a camera-based FSD platform that allows for quicker scalability and immediate operations in new metropolitan areas [9] Group 4: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Tesla has a history of overpromising, with Musk previously predicting a million robotaxis on the road by 2020, which has not materialized [10] - However, Musk asserts that full autonomous rides are imminent in Austin by June, suggesting a potential shift in the company's trajectory [10]