艾睿铂判断汽车关税政策对中国影响有限 中国汽车2030年全球份额或增长至30%

Core Insights - Despite tariffs imposed by multiple countries on Chinese automotive brands, the overall impact remains limited, with a 24% increase in export costs amounting to $46 billion, which only represents 3.8% of China's total automotive industry output [1] Group 1: Tariff Impact - The U.S. tariffs on imported vehicles and specific auto parts, effective from April 3, 2023, have caused panic within the global automotive supply chain [1] - The impact of U.S. tariffs on China's complete vehicle exports is minimal, while the effect on auto parts exports is more significant, potentially affecting $20 billion to $30 billion in exports [2] - In 2024, China exported only 107,000 complete vehicles to the U.S., accounting for 1.81% of its total automotive exports [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - China's automotive exports have become a crucial growth engine, with exports surpassing 6.4 million units in 2024, maintaining its position as the world's largest automotive exporter [1] - The demand for Chinese vehicles in Russia has doubled over the past five years, helping to mitigate the impact of global tariff fluctuations [3] - In 2024, Russia and the Middle East accounted for 35% of China's total automotive exports, surpassing exports to Europe and North America [3] Group 3: Technological Advancements - China leads in the adoption of intelligent driving features, with nearly 60% of passenger cars sold in 2024 equipped with L2 or higher assistance systems, compared to less than 40% in the U.S. [5] - The unique advantages of Chinese automotive products in electric and intelligent driving technologies have established a competitive edge in overseas markets [4][5] - Two-thirds of surveyed executives believe that China is at the forefront of intelligent driving systems, with other markets lacking the necessary conditions to replicate this success [5] Group 4: Future Projections - China's automotive exports are projected to grow by 23% in 2024, with passenger car exports reaching 6.4 million units, significantly outpacing Japan [6] - The growth rate is expected to slow to 4% in 2025, while the domestic market is also projected to grow by 4%, reaching 26.8 million vehicles [6] - By 2030, Chinese brands are anticipated to capture approximately 30% of the global automotive market, up from 21% in 2024 [6]