4.25纯碱日评：纯碱市场稳中上行，供需差修复预期支撑尚存

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market is experiencing a stable upward trend, with price increases ranging from 5 to 30 yuan per ton, driven by supply dynamics and market sentiment [2][5]. Price Summary - Light soda ash prices in East China are between 1300-1500 yuan/ton, while heavy soda ash prices are between 1420-1500 yuan/ton [2]. - In Central China, light soda ash prices range from 1250-1390 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash prices are between 1300-1450 yuan/ton [2]. - The market shows no significant price changes in various regions, with some minor fluctuations noted [1]. Market Dynamics - The trading atmosphere is described as moderate, with a strong sense of observation among market participants [2]. - Supply remains stable but under pressure, with some companies undergoing maintenance, which provides limited support to the market [2]. - The cost of production is slightly alleviated due to a minor decline in coal and raw salt prices, although the overall cost support remains limited [2]. Futures Market - On April 25, the main soda ash futures contract opened at 1376 yuan/ton and closed at 1365 yuan/ton, reflecting a daily decline of 0.29% [3]. - The trading volume increased, indicating a rise in market activity despite the price drop [3]. - Market sentiment is influenced by insufficient policy guidance following important meetings, but supply disruptions are expected to provide some support [3]. Short-term Outlook - The soda ash market is expected to maintain a narrow range of fluctuations in the short term, with pre-holiday stocking boosting market sentiment [5]. - As May approaches, planned maintenance by some companies is anticipated to reduce operational rates, leading to potential supply constraints [5]. - The actual impact of maintenance on supply will be a key focus moving forward [5].