泸州老窖业绩增速放缓，公司：白酒市场竞争将步入白热化阶段

Core Viewpoint - Luzhou Laojiao has entered a slow growth phase amid a new adjustment cycle in the liquor industry, with 2024 showing the first single-digit growth in net profit since 2014 [2][3] Financial Performance - In 2024, Luzhou Laojiao achieved operating revenue of 31.196 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.19%, and a net profit of 13.473 billion yuan, up 1.71% [3][4] - The basic earnings per share for the company was 9.18 yuan, with a proposed cash dividend of 45.92 yuan per 10 shares (including tax) [3][4] - For Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 9.352 billion yuan, a 1.78% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.593 billion yuan, up 0.41% [5] Sales and Market Trends - Total liquor sales volume for Luzhou Laojiao in 2024 was 103,800 tons, reflecting a growth of 7.77%, down from 11.71% the previous year [6] - The sales volume of mid-to-high-end liquor, including Guojiao 1573 and Luzhou Laojiao Tequ, was 43,000 tons, up 14.39%, while other liquor products saw a growth of only 3.54% [6] - The overall liquor market is experiencing a slowdown, with national liquor production declining by 1.8% in 2024 [8] Industry Dynamics - The liquor industry is undergoing significant changes, with increasing competition and a shift towards younger, lower-alcohol, and healthier products [2] - Luzhou Laojiao's contract liabilities reached 3.978 billion yuan by the end of 2024, a year-on-year increase of over 48%, indicating strong willingness from distributors to make payments [8] - The company has not met its initial target of a 15% revenue growth for the year, attributing this to a shift in consumer demand and a transition phase in the industry [9] Inventory and Supply Management - By the end of 2024, inventory of other liquor products surged to 10,400 tons, an increase of 81.70% year-on-year, primarily due to increased year-end stock for head liquor products [10] - The company is implementing a "control inventory and stabilize prices" strategy to manage market supply and demand effectively [10][11]