当牛人遇到更牛的人：特朗普的服软与鲍威尔的反击，好戏在后头(作者：赵承业博士）

Core Viewpoint - The conflict between Trump's aggressive trade policies and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is intensifying, with Trump criticizing Fed Chair Powell for not lowering interest rates to stimulate the economy amid rising tariffs and supply chain disruptions [1][3][11]. Group 1: Trump's Actions and Criticism - Trump has previously criticized Powell's interest rate hikes, claiming they stifle economic growth, and has hinted at wanting Powell to resign [3]. - Trump attempted to use public opinion and legal avenues to remove Powell, threatening to fire him and exploring the possibility of doing so under "just cause" [3][6]. - Following warnings from Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Commerce Secretary Ross about potential market turmoil from Powell's dismissal, Trump stated he had "never intended" to remove Powell but continued to criticize the Fed's policies [4][11]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Response - The Federal Reserve, under Powell's leadership, has maintained its independence, emphasizing that monetary policy should not be influenced by political pressures [3][8]. - The Fed's internal unity is strong, with officials collectively defending their independence and emphasizing the need to combat inflation [7][8]. - The release of the Fed's Beige Book highlighted the negative impacts of tariffs, including rising costs and supply chain issues, which Powell used to reinforce the Fed's stance against political interference [7][8]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Economic Implications - Financial markets reacted negatively to the rumors of Powell's potential dismissal, with significant sell-offs in stocks and bonds [4][7]. - The Beige Book reported widespread "cost-push inflation" across the U.S., with specific examples of industries facing severe cost increases and layoffs [7][8]. - As the 2026 elections approach, the ongoing conflict between the Fed's independence and political pressures will continue to shape economic conditions and market confidence in the U.S. financial system [11].