Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-04-27 17:43Core Viewpoint - The new trade-in policy, supported by a 300 billion subsidy, is reshaping three major industries: home appliances, automobiles, and consumer electronics, presenting investment opportunities for medium to long-term investors [1] Group 1: Home Appliances - The home appliance sector receives the largest subsidy, with up to 20% off for 12 product categories, capped at 2000 yuan per item. Sales surged by 23% year-on-year in the first four months of this year, with leading companies like Midea and Gree operating at full capacity [3] - High-end smart products, such as the Casarte series, have seen sales double post-subsidy, indicating a long-term trend of consumption upgrading [3] Group 2: Automotive Sector - The new energy vehicle segment is the biggest beneficiary, with a 20,000 yuan trade-in subsidy boosting sales. BYD's Han series orders exceeded 80,000 units in April [3] - The battery supply chain, including companies like CATL and Purtai, is also benefiting from this trend. The automotive aftermarket is highlighted as a promising area, with Tianqi's dismantling equipment orders extending to Q4 and Gree's battery recycling business achieving a gross margin of 28% [3] Group 3: Consumer Electronics - Although the subsidies in consumer electronics are smaller, they cover a wide range of products, including mobile phones and tablets. The Honor 90 series has over 40% of its sales through trade-in channels, and the inventory turnover days for core distributor Aishide have decreased to 15 days [3] - VR device manufacturer GoerTek has secured new orders from Meta, with expectations for Q3 performance to exceed forecasts [3] Group 4: Investment Strategy - Investment should focus on three dimensions: core leaders, supporting supply chains, and regional leaders. Recommended stocks include Midea Group and Haier Smart Home in home appliances, BYD and Top Group in new energy vehicles, and Luxshare Precision and Shenzhen South Circuit in consumer electronics [4] - Key timelines for investment include the release of home appliance energy-saving subsidy details in June, the launch of new energy vehicles in August, and the consumer electronics exhibition in November. Early positioning can capture policy-driven benefits [4] Group 5: Market Trends - The policy is expected to accelerate the concentration of the three industries. The market share of the top five companies in the home appliance sector has increased from 68% in 2019 to 79% currently, while the top ten automotive companies now hold over 92% market share [4] - The focus should be on companies with stable cash flow and a dividend yield exceeding 3% to seize structural opportunities [4]