“全球经济需要一个运作良好、基于规则的贸易体系”（国际视点）

Group 1 - The article highlights that the U.S. imposition of tariffs is a form of unilateralism, protectionism, and economic bullying, which severely impacts the international economic and trade order, dragging down global economic growth and harming the U.S. economy itself [1] - The IMF's latest World Economic Outlook report has downgraded the global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 2.8%, a reduction of 0.5 percentage points from earlier predictions, primarily due to the U.S. government's announcement of tariffs affecting nearly all trade partners [2][3] - The report indicates that the U.S. economic growth rate is expected to slow to 1.8% in 2025, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from previous forecasts, marking the largest downgrade among developed economies [2][3] Group 2 - The IMF predicts that global trade growth will decline from 3.8% last year to 1.7% this year, a drop of more than half, due to the negative impacts of tariffs on the complex global supply chain [3] - The IMF also warns that global public debt as a percentage of GDP is expected to exceed 95% this year, rising by 2.8 percentage points, with potential to reach 117% by 2027, the highest level since World War II [3] Group 3 - A coalition of 12 U.S. states has filed a lawsuit against the federal government, claiming that the tariff policy is illegal and disrupts the constitutional order, leading to economic chaos [4] - The lawsuit argues that the tariffs impose significant tax burdens on families and businesses, with warnings from state attorneys general about potential inflation and economic losses if the tariffs continue [4] Group 4 - Recent data from the University of Michigan shows that the one-year inflation expectation in the U.S. has risen to 6.7%, the highest since 1981, indicating that new tariffs may push consumer prices higher while suppressing economic activity [5] - Polls indicate a decline in support for the U.S. government since the introduction of the tariff policy, with only 40% approval and 59% of the public disapproving of the tariff measures [6] Group 5 - Analysts warn that the U.S. tariff policy could undermine the dollar's status as a safe-haven currency, with potential implications for global financial markets [7] - The report from Boston Consulting Group suggests that the tariffs not only increase costs for U.S. businesses and consumers but also signal a shift towards a new era of trade relations, potentially excluding the U.S. from traditional partnerships [7] Group 6 - The uncertainty surrounding trade policies is expected to significantly suppress trade flows, reduce exports, and weaken economic activity, as stated by the chief economist of the WTO [8] - The IMF calls for stable and mutually beneficial trade arrangements to restore order in trade policies, emphasizing the need for a well-functioning, rules-based trade system for the global economy [8]