金钟：特朗普想为美债“排雷”，美联储和日本谁靠得住？

Group 1 - The recent phenomenon of "triple kill" in the US financial market, where stocks, bonds, and the dollar all decline simultaneously, indicates a significant outflow of capital from the US market [2][4] - The S&P 500 index has seen a decrease of 5.9% from December 2022 to April 2025, while the 10-year Treasury yield has increased by 0.11 percentage points during the same period [3] - The decline in US Treasury prices is attributed to multiple factors, including increased tariffs leading to inflation, forced liquidation by hedge funds, and the upcoming debt ceiling crisis [4][5] Group 2 - Major US companies are beginning to estimate the impact of tariffs on their profits, with PepsiCo projecting a 5% decline and Pulte Homes estimating a 1% increase in new home costs due to tariffs [6][7] - The impact of tariffs on small and medium-sized enterprises is still unclear, as they lack the resources to mitigate risks compared to larger corporations [7] - The outlook for the US bond market is more predictable, with expectations of increased demand for Treasury issuance following the debt ceiling increase, but concerns remain about inflation and capital outflows [8][9] Group 3 - The US-China trade war has shifted from a broad approach to targeted measures, with tariffs being raised on specific industries such as automotive and medical devices [9][10] - There is a consensus among US elites regarding the need to increase tariffs on key industries to bring manufacturing back to the US, despite the challenges of re-industrialization [10] - China faces a significant challenge in balancing the need for dollar reserves while exploring alternatives to the dollar in international trade, including the promotion of digital currency [11]