伦锡今年表现抢眼，但近期面临压力

Market Overview - Tin prices have shown strong performance, rising over 10% year-to-date, but faced pressure following the announcement of reciprocal tariffs by the US in early April [2] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) tin price reached a nearly three-year high of $38,395 per ton on April 2, before sharply declining to $28,925 per ton by April 9, marking a nearly 20% drop within a week [2] - Despite recent volatility, tin prices continue to outperform other metals, supported by ongoing supply challenges [2] Supply Dynamics - LME tin inventories have decreased by over 40% since the beginning of the year, reaching a low of 2,810 tons by the end of April, the lowest level since June 2023 [2] - In contrast, Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories have surged over 70% this year, reaching nearly 9,000 tons, the highest level since September of the previous year [2] - Indonesia's refined tin exports in February increased over 100% month-on-month to 3,670 tons, driven by higher demand from major buyers and increased exports to other Asian markets [3][4] Import Challenges - Myanmar's ongoing issues continue to pressure tin ore imports for major consuming countries, with China's imports of tin ore and concentrates in March 2025 dropping 64% year-on-year to 8,322.55 tons [5] - The cumulative import volume for January to March 2025 was 26,900 tons, reflecting a 55% year-on-year decline [5] - Although there are hopes for supply recovery following a recent meeting by Wa State authorities to outline new mining and processing licensing procedures, the timeline remains uncertain [6] Consumption Trends - Global refined tin consumption has started strong this year, with an estimated 8% year-on-year growth in the first two months, driven by robust demand from countries like India and Japan [8] - However, potential risks to domestic and export-driven demand may arise from US tariffs, which could dampen economic momentum [9] Production Outlook - The mining ban in Myanmar is expected to end soon, but the restart of operations faces delays and rising costs, with a recent meeting discussing new mining license applications [10] - Alphamin Resources announced a phased restart of its Bisie mine, which accounts for about 6% of global supply, but has lowered its 2025 tin production forecast from 20,000 tons to 17,500 tons due to increased anti-government activity [10]