买家观望，卖家惜售：澳洲楼市正卡在十字路口

Core Viewpoint - The Australian real estate market is showing signs of cooling as the 2025 federal election approaches, with increasing cost of living pressures and a decline in auction clearance rates, which have dropped to 64.2%, the lowest since mid-December 2024 [1][3]. Auction Market Dynamics - Sydney's preliminary clearance rate has decreased to 66.2%, while Brisbane recorded a low of 47.1%, the lowest in two years. Melbourne's clearance rate is relatively stable at 67.6%, but still indicates reduced market activity compared to earlier in the year [3][5]. - The overall number of properties sent to auction has declined, with clearance rates falling across most cities except Melbourne, reflecting a growing wait-and-see attitude among buyers and sellers [1][3]. Buyer Sentiment Analysis - Despite a temporary boost from the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) interest rate cut in February 2025, buyer confidence has weakened, as indicated by declining auction clearance rates [3][7]. - Factors affecting buyer sentiment include policy uncertainty due to the upcoming federal election, which typically leads to a 5%-10% short-term decline in buying activity [9]. - Rising living costs, with key expenses like food and energy increasing over 5.6% year-on-year, are further straining household budgets and suppressing purchasing power [11]. Price Resilience - Despite declining auction clearance rates, property prices in major Australian cities are still experiencing slight increases, with the national residential price index rising 0.6% in March 2025 [14]. - The ongoing structural supply-demand imbalance, characterized by a significant drop in new residential approvals (down 8.4% year-on-year), continues to support price levels [14][15]. - Low holding costs for homeowners, who have locked in low mortgage rates, contribute to reduced selling pressure, particularly in core urban areas [14][15]. Future Outlook - The trajectory of the Australian real estate market will largely depend on monetary policy and political developments, with expectations of another interest rate cut by the RBA in May 2025 [17]. - The outcome of the federal election could significantly influence market sentiment, with potential policy changes impacting supply and demand dynamics [17]. - Long-term fundamentals such as population growth and urbanization will continue to support the market, especially in major cities where quality housing remains scarce [18].