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开源证券:给予欢乐家增持评级

Core Viewpoint - The company is facing pressure on its main business sales, but the development of new retail channels shows promising results, leading to a maintained "buy" rating [2]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue was 450 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.5%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 30 million yuan, down 58.3% year-on-year [2]. - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted, with expected net profits of 160 million yuan (-50 million), 180 million yuan (-30 million), and 200 million yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 4.9%, 14.5%, and 10.0% respectively [2]. Product Performance - Sales of coconut juice and canned fruit are under pressure, with coconut juice revenue at 230 million yuan (down 14.6% year-on-year) and canned fruit revenue at 160 million yuan (down 25.5% year-on-year) [3]. - The company plans to focus on upgrading the formula and packaging of canned fruit and expanding consumption scenarios, while also pushing coconut juice into snack wholesale channels [3]. Channel Analysis - Traditional channels are experiencing significant decline due to the rapid development of new retail channels, which are capturing demand from offline traditional supermarkets [4]. - The company is actively optimizing traditional channel outlets and has established partnerships with leading snack specialty chains, achieving revenue of 46.446 million yuan in Q1 2025 from snack wholesale channels, an increase of 6.149 million yuan from Q4 2024 [4]. Cost and Profitability - The gross margin decreased by 7.32 percentage points to 31.38% in Q1 2025, attributed to rising raw material prices and lower margins from snack specialty channels [4]. - The net profit margin fell by 7.27 percentage points to 7.63% due to increased expense ratios across various categories [4].