买美元炒美股，从“双赢”变成了“双杀”！

Core Insights - The once successful strategy of investing in US stocks while holding dollars has faced significant challenges due to the recent decline in the dollar and the S&P 500 index, leading to substantial losses for foreign investors [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has dropped by 6% this year, while foreign investors, when accounting for the nearly 8% decline in the dollar, have experienced losses of approximately 14% [1]. - The volatility in US markets and the unpredictable nature of White House policies have created unprecedented anxiety among investors who previously viewed the US as a safe haven [1]. Group 2: Hedging Strategies - Investors are increasingly seeking to hedge against currency risks, with approximately $18 trillion in US stock portfolios now being considered for additional currency hedging measures [3]. - Major financial institutions like Morgan Stanley and Bank of America report a rise in clients purchasing protective assets against dollar depreciation [3]. Group 3: Cost of Hedging - The cost of hedging against dollar depreciation varies, with annualized costs around 4% for investors in Swiss francs or yen, and over 2% for euro investors [4]. - While hedging can mitigate losses from a declining dollar, it also limits potential gains from a rising dollar, leading to a complex trade-off for investors [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Concerns are growing about the potential withdrawal of international investors from the US market, with Allianz suggesting that even a small outflow from the estimated $28 trillion in international investment could significantly impact exchange rates and global asset prices [5]. - Analysts predict a continued strength of the euro against the dollar, with estimates suggesting the euro could rise to 1.30 against the dollar by the end of 2027, a level not seen in a decade [5].