华尔街惊现“孤勇者”！万亿资产巨头发声：欧洲央行很快加息！

Group 1 - Franklin Templeton predicts that the European Central Bank (ECB) may consider raising interest rates by the end of the year due to increased defense spending potentially boosting the economy [2] - David Zahn, head of European fixed income at Franklin Templeton, believes that by 2026, Europe will show low inflation and strong growth, suggesting a shift in ECB policy towards rate hikes [2] - Current market expectations lean towards three more rate cuts by the ECB this year, each by 25 basis points, maintaining the deposit rate at 1.5% until mid-next year [2][3] Group 2 - The Dutch central bank president, Knot, indicates that the upcoming ECB meeting in June will be complex, with potential downward revisions to inflation forecasts [3] - Zahn expects the ECB deposit rate to bottom out between 1.75% and 1.5% by September, leading to a more optimistic outlook for the economy [3] - The focus is shifting back to the economic boost from European defense plans, with Germany initiating significant debt financing for defense and infrastructure spending [3] Group 3 - Franklin Templeton's European total return fund has returned approximately 3.6% over the past year, compared to a benchmark return of 6.5% [4] - The company has reduced its exposure to Spain, France, and Italy, anticipating widening yield spreads between their 10-year bonds and German bonds [3][4] - The outlook for the UK is negative, with all UK government bond positions sold off due to severe fiscal conditions, leading to rising long-term borrowing costs [4][5]