超长期特别国债首发结果出炉 流动性调控精准“护航”财政发债

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds and central financial institution capital injection bonds has commenced, supported by stable market liquidity and monetary policy tools from the central bank [1][4]. Group 1: Bond Issuance Details - The issuance amounts for the ultra-long-term special government bonds are 500 billion for 20-year bonds, 710 billion for 30-year bonds, and 1650 billion for central financial institution capital injection bonds [2]. - The winning bid rates are 1.98% for 20-year bonds, 1.88% for 30-year bonds, and 1.45% for 5-year bonds, with overall bid multiples of 3.11, 3.66, and 2.67 respectively [2]. - The issuance reflects a rational market response, with no signs of excessive bidding, indicating strong demand from institutional investors [2][3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Trends - The current issuance shows a yield inversion where the 20-year bond yield is higher than the 30-year bond yield, which is contrary to typical market behavior [3]. - The increase in the scale of bond issuance is expected to significantly boost government debt supply this year, with a planned issuance of 1.3 trillion in ultra-long-term special government bonds, up by 300 billion from 2024 [4]. - The central bank's recent MLF operations have injected 5000 billion into the market, indicating a proactive approach to maintain liquidity and support the bond issuance [5][6]. Group 3: Future Market Outlook - The bond market is anticipated to experience a peak in issuance from May to June, with local government bonds expected to maintain a rapid issuance pace [8]. - Market sentiment is becoming more optimistic due to ongoing liquidity support and signals from the political bureau meeting regarding proactive fiscal policies [8][9]. - The central bank is likely to provide additional easing measures to support fiscal policies, maintaining a consistent policy direction [10].