高盛重磅研判

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs reports a gradual adjustment in global institutional asset allocation, with U.S. Treasuries under continued pressure and the dollar facing structural depreciation [1][2][4] Group 1: Global Asset Allocation Adjustment - The report indicates that while there is no significant evidence of foreign investors massively selling U.S. Treasuries, global investment portfolios may be gradually adjusting [2][3] - The increase in the supply of "safe-haven assets" and the gradual adjustment in global asset allocation are contributing to the ongoing pressure on U.S. Treasuries [3] Group 2: U.S. Treasury Market Dynamics - Analysts emphasize that the re-pricing of risk premiums on U.S. Treasuries and the weakening dollar are part of the adjustment process, aimed at compensating for the deterioration of risk portfolios and stimulating future demand from global investors [3] Group 3: Dollar Depreciation Trends - Goldman Sachs' FICC team highlights that uncertainty will not dissipate quickly, cautioning against being misled by short-term sell-offs [4] - Despite strong current U.S. economic data, risks remain, particularly if the economy enters a more severe period of growth weakness, which may take time to manifest [4] - The report suggests that the dollar's depreciation trend will persist in the long term, driven by tariffs, uncertainty, and recession risks [4][5] Group 4: Investor Behavior and Dollar Valuation - A significant number of leveraged investors hold dollar assets without hedging, indicating potential for a substantial increase in hedging ratios [5] - Historical data shows that the actual exchange rate of the dollar is currently about two standard deviations above the mean since the floating exchange rate era began in 1973, with past high valuation periods leading to a 25%-30% depreciation [5] - The International Monetary Fund estimates that non-U.S. investors hold up to $22 trillion in U.S. assets, suggesting that any reduction in their investment exposure could lead to significant dollar depreciation [5]