4月28日A股走势分析及策略

Market Overview - The current A-share market is in a "strategic stalemate phase," with indices appearing calm but underlying volatility present [1] - Three main characteristics of the market include index box range fluctuations, moderate volume contraction, and rapid style rotation [3] Index and Fund Flows - The Shanghai Composite Index has been hovering between 3270 and 3320 points for 13 trading days, a critical area of dense trading from the last quarter of the previous year [3] - Notably, when the index exceeds 3300 points, there is a significant decrease in margin financing balance, indicating a reduction in leveraged funds [3] - Northbound capital saw a net outflow of 8.7 billion over three trading days, yet core assets like Ningde Times and Yangtze Power experienced increased holdings, reflecting a "go fake keep true" strategy from smart money [3] Sector Analysis - The AI computing power sector, while popular, shows three warning signs: major shareholder reduction announcements from Zhongji Xuchuang, Cambrian's P/E ratio exceeding 900 times, and net selling by institutional investors in some small-cap stocks [3] - The power sector, which has undergone sufficient adjustments, is expected to face a power supply gap of 40 million kilowatts this summer, with visibility of orders in virtual power plants and smart grids extending to the third quarter [3] - Huaneng International and other thermal power transformation targets exhibit a price-to-book ratio of only 1.2 times, indicating a strong safety margin [3] Investment Strategy - Short-term investors are advised to focus on the medical device sector, which is benefiting from easing procurement policies and dual validations from annual and quarterly reports [4] - Mid to long-term investments should consider two key trends: domestic semiconductor equipment production, highlighted by a major order from Zhongwei Company to Yangtze Storage, and deepening state-owned enterprise reforms, with central enterprises like China Communications Construction Company showing a price-to-book ratio in the historical 10th percentile and a dividend yield exceeding 4.5% [4] Risk Monitoring - Investors should be cautious of three warning signals: liquidity traps in micro-cap stocks, potential foreign capital reallocation if the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield exceeds 3.5%, and rising copper prices that may squeeze profits in the midstream manufacturing sector [4] Market Sentiment - The current market environment tests investors' "composure," requiring them to navigate risks while seizing opportunities [4] - The upcoming PMI data release is anticipated to be a key variable that could break the current stalemate [6]