CGWS(SZ:002939) Shang Hai Zheng Quan Bao·2025-04-28 20:33Core Viewpoint - The speech by Wang Yi, Chief Economist of Great Wall Securities, emphasizes the need to enhance consumer spending through improved income distribution, social security systems, and stabilization of the real estate and capital markets [2][4]. Group 1: Consumer Market Insights - The "old-for-new" policy has been significantly strengthened this year, leading to a notable increase in consumer spending [3]. - In the first quarter, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 12.47 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, which is 1.1 percentage points faster than the overall growth rate for 2024 [3]. - Retail sales of green and smart products have surged, with significant growth in categories such as communication equipment (26.9%), cultural and office supplies (21.7%), home appliances (19.3%), and furniture (18.1%) [3]. Group 2: Recommendations for Sustained Growth - To boost consumption, it is essential to improve the social security system, as the current low consumption ratio and high savings rate are linked to inadequate social security coverage [4]. - Optimizing the income redistribution mechanism is crucial, as the current income distribution shows a low share for households, which contributes to insufficient domestic demand [4]. - The supply side should also be developed to promote consumption, including new consumption models such as the ice and snow economy, silver economy, and cruise economy [4]. Group 3: Real Estate Market Stability - The stability of the real estate market is critical as it holds a significant portion of residents' wealth, and various measures have been implemented to stabilize the market [5]. - In March, 24 out of 70 major cities saw an increase in new residential property prices, indicating a recovery trend [5]. - Wang Yi suggests lifting certain purchase restrictions in major cities and lowering interest rates to enhance market confidence [6]. Group 4: A-Share Market Outlook - The A-share market is currently at a historical low valuation, presenting opportunities for growth [7]. - Future market performance will depend on trends in industries like artificial intelligence and the effectiveness of domestic demand stimulation [7].