重金营销“男裤专家”后，九牧王仍然增收不增利

Core Viewpoint - Jiumuwang (601566.SH), after five years of positioning itself as a "men's pants expert," has not achieved a significant breakthrough in performance [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, Jiumuwang's revenue is projected to be 3.181 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.13%, which is below the company's guidance of 3.4 billion yuan provided in the 2023 annual report [2] - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 176 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 7.86%, with investment business losses contributing 59 million yuan to fair value changes [5] - In Q1 2024, revenue decreased by 4.76% to 895 million yuan, and the net profit dropped by 25% [7] Group 2: Store and Brand Development - The brand's terminal store count has decreased, with a net increase of only 23 stores for the main brand, while sub-brands ZIOZIA and FUN saw reductions of 8 and 22 stores, respectively [3][4] - Jiumuwang's advertising and promotional expenses reached 232 million yuan in 2024, an increase of approximately 46 million yuan from the previous year [12] - The company opened 113 new direct-operated stores in 2024, bringing the total to 755, with an average store area increasing from 155 square meters to 170 square meters [13] Group 3: Inventory and Cost Management - Jiumuwang's inventory increased by 7.5% in 2024, with a significant portion of stock being outdated, as about one-fifth of the warehouse items are from two years ago [19][20] - The company has recorded a provision for inventory impairment amounting to 250 million yuan [21] - Sales expenses have risen from 974 million yuan in 2022 to 1.388 billion yuan in 2024, with the sales expense ratio climbing from 37.1% to 43.6% [16] Group 4: Market Position and Challenges - Jiumuwang's core customer base is aging, with a significant loss of customers as they retire, while younger consumers have more options, leading to a decline in brand loyalty [24] - The company faces challenges from emerging brands and a saturated market, with its single-category strategy potentially limiting revenue growth [26] - The efficiency of individual stores has decreased, with revenue per square meter dropping from 10,800 yuan in 2022 to 8,000 yuan in 2024 [27]