美国资产惨遭冷眼，德银：海外买家还在“罢工”！

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank indicates that despite a recent recovery in the U.S. market, foreign investors are still "refusing to buy U.S. assets" [1] Group 1: Foreign Investment Trends - Deutsche Bank's foreign exchange strategist George Saravelos analyzed fund flows from overseas into U.S. stocks and bonds, revealing a "sharp stagnation" in purchases by foreign buyers over the past two months [1] - The report concludes that the current capital inflow into the U.S. is likely to slow down significantly, posing a challenge for the dollar, which is already facing dual deficit issues [1] Group 2: ETF and Fund Activity - Foreign ETF investors are simultaneously selling U.S. Treasuries and equities, with a notable shift in sentiment from bullish to bearish on the dollar since February [3] - The report highlights that European investors' holdings of U.S. assets have increased from approximately 5% in 2010 to 20% in 2024, while Japanese investors' holdings have doubled to 16% [3] - Saravelos has been tracking around 400 overseas-registered ETFs focused on the U.S. market, finding that investors are actively selling stocks and bonds, with a halt in new purchases of U.S. equities [3] Group 3: Dollar Forecast - Saravelos has revised down his expectations for the dollar, citing that Trump's policies are diminishing foreign investors' willingness to finance U.S. trade and budget deficits [4] - The strategist predicts that by 2027, the dollar-to-euro exchange rate will decline from approximately 1.14 to 1.30, and the dollar-to-yen rate will drop from 142 to 115 [4]