铜 向上修复

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in copper prices have shown a trend of initial decline followed by recovery, influenced by U.S. tariff policies and market sentiment [1][2]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Tariff Impact - In early April, copper prices dropped significantly due to concerns over U.S. "reciprocal tariffs," reaching a low of 71,320 yuan/ton after the Qingming holiday [1]. - Following the announcement on April 9 to delay high tariffs on some trade partners, global markets, including copper, rebounded sharply [2]. - The overall market sentiment has shifted towards stability, with the negative impact of U.S. tariff policies diminishing [2]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Overseas mining operations remain stable, with minor disruptions reported, such as protests affecting the Antapaccay copper mine in Peru and a worker's death at the Sierra Gorda mine in Chile [3]. - There are signs of easing in copper concentrate supply, with the Panamanian government allowing exports and other mines showing potential for increased output [3]. - As of mid-April, the import copper concentrate processing fee was reported at -34.71 USD/ton, indicating a continued decline over three months [3]. Group 3: Copper and Scrap Price Dynamics - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper has narrowed significantly, reaching a low of 450 yuan/ton in mid-April, the lowest since October 2023 [4]. - The decline in copper prices has led to reduced sales volumes from scrap copper holders, impacting production levels [4]. - Despite negative processing fees for imported copper concentrate, domestic smelting rates have increased, reaching 87.68% by the end of March [4]. Group 4: Consumption Trends - The operating levels of refined copper rod enterprises are higher than in previous years, primarily due to insufficient scrap copper production rather than increased end-user demand [5]. - Seasonal trends in the air conditioning industry suggest a potential decline in copper demand in May, as production enters a down cycle [5]. - The automotive sector is expected to see a seasonal uptick in May, but the actual demand may be limited due to prior fulfillment of needs through subsidies [6]. Group 5: Price Outlook - Overall, driven by supply dynamics, copper prices are expected to continue their upward recovery in May [6].