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桂冠电力(600236):水电保障业绩稳定新能源打开成长空间

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its 2024 annual results and Q1 2025 results, showing a significant increase in net profit but lower than expected due to underperformance in thermal power generation and asset impairment losses [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 9.598 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.63%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.283 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 86.26% [1] - For Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 1.945 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.70%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 543 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.37% [1] - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of 0.12 yuan per share, resulting in a total annual dividend of 0.205 yuan per share, which accounts for 70.77% of the net profit attributable to shareholders in 2024 [1] Group 2: Hydropower and Thermal Power Performance - In 2024, the company experienced a significant increase in hydropower generation due to abundant rainfall in Guangxi, with hydropower generation reaching 30.583 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 44.94% [2] - Thermal power generation was negatively impacted, with a decrease of 47.02% to 2.656 billion kWh in 2024 [2] - Overall, the company's total power generation and on-grid power generation were 36.425 billion kWh and 35.804 billion kWh, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 27.77% and 29.07% [2] Group 3: Q1 2025 Performance and New Energy Growth - In Q1 2025, the company’s total power generation was 7.449 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 4.78%, with hydropower generation increasing by 23.90% [3] - Thermal power generation further declined by 75.25% to 296 million kWh due to pressure from hydropower and new energy generation [3] - The company’s installed capacity for wind and solar energy reached 872,500 kW and 1,458,400 kW, respectively, with significant year-on-year increases, leading to a higher proportion of new energy generation [3] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - Based on the operational data for 2024 and Q1 2025, the company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 2.815 billion yuan and 2.936 billion yuan, respectively [4] - The company’s clean energy proportion is steadily increasing, and its dividend payout ratio is among the highest in the industry, indicating long-term value despite short-term price fluctuations [4]