dbg markets:特朗普只需做一件事，降息潮将排山倒海而来

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report by Goldman Sachs strategist Dominic Wilson highlights the deteriorating labor market as a key factor prompting the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts [3][4] - Wilson predicts that if a full recession occurs, the S&P 500 index could drop to 4600 points, high-yield bond spreads may exceed 600 basis points, and short-term yields could fall below 3% [3][4] - The current economic environment is characterized by high uncertainty in policy direction, low consumer and business confidence, and potential contraction in real income growth, keeping the U.S. economy under the shadow of recession [3][4] Group 2 - The recent market volatility has exposed vulnerabilities in the U.S. financial system, including the U.S. Treasury market, which may face renewed risks [4] - The impact of tariffs on inflation and changes in labor market hiring behavior will take time to manifest, suggesting that the U.S. economy will remain in a "recession watch" period for at least the next two to three months [4] - Federal Reserve officials, including Chairman Powell, have emphasized the importance of stabilizing inflation expectations while maintaining a cautious approach to policy decisions [4][5] Group 3 - Fed Vice Chairman Waller's views align with those of Goldman Sachs, indicating that the key factors prompting rapid Fed action include potential job losses and rising unemployment rates due to tariffs [5] - Waller suggests that tariffs may only produce a one-time price effect, and the critical issue is recognizing this as a temporary phenomenon [5] - The ongoing dynamics between unemployment rates, Fed monetary policy, and trade policy could lead to significant shifts in the global economic landscape [6]