晋控煤业(601001)：煤炭量价齐跌业绩下滑 45%现金分红回馈股东

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024 and Q1 2025, indicating significant pressure on its coal business due to falling prices and reduced production and sales volumes [1][2][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 15.033 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.01% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.808 billion yuan, down 14.93% year-on-year; and cash flow from operating activities was 2.994 billion yuan, a decrease of 51.46% year-on-year [1]. - For Q4 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 3.799 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.04%, and a net profit of 657 million yuan, down 42.18% year-on-year [1]. - In Q1 2025, operating revenue was 2.424 billion yuan, a decrease of 33.73% year-on-year, and net profit was 512 million yuan, down 34.35% year-on-year [1]. Coal Business Performance - In 2024, the company produced 34.6664 million tons of raw coal, a slight decrease of 0.06% year-on-year, and sold 29.9665 million tons of commercial coal, down 0.43% year-on-year [2]. - In Q1 2025, raw coal production was 7.8626 million tons, a decrease of 6.94% year-on-year, and commercial coal sales were 5.2617 million tons, down 24.33% year-on-year [2]. Specific Mine Performance - The Tashan mine had a stable raw coal output of 26.4969 million tons in 2024, but commercial coal sales decreased by 2.02% year-on-year [2]. - The Selian mine saw a 22.53% increase in raw coal production in Q1 2025, reaching 2.0604 million tons, while commercial coal sales increased by 13.20% [3]. Dividend and Shareholder Returns - The company announced a cash dividend of 0.755 yuan per share for 2024, with a total cash dividend amounting to 1.264 billion yuan, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 45% and an estimated dividend yield of 6.58% based on the closing price of 11.47 yuan on April 25, 2025 [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting revenues of 13.595 billion yuan, 13.804 billion yuan, and 14.152 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 1.975 billion yuan, 2.166 billion yuan, and 2.519 billion yuan [4]. - The estimated earnings per share for 2025-2027 are projected to be 1.18 yuan, 1.29 yuan, and 1.50 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 9.7X, 8.9X, and 7.6X [4].