煤炭周报 印尼减产增强供给收缩预期，看好节后行情 glmszqdatemark 重点公司盈利预测、估值与评级 | 代码 | 简称 | 股价 | | EPS（元） | | | PE（X） | | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | （元） | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | | | 601001 | 晋控煤业 | 15.67 | 1.68 | 1.01 | 1.32 | 9 | 16 | 12 | 推荐 | | 600546 | 山煤国际 | 11.03 | 1.14 | 0.67 | 1.17 | 10 | 16 | 9 | 推荐 | | 601699 | 潞安环能 | 13.37 | 0.82 | 0.74 | 1.01 | 16 | 18 | 13 | 推荐 | | 600348 | 华阳股份 | 9.36 | 0.62 | 0.47 | 0.67 | 15 | 20 | 14 | 推荐 | | 600188 | 兖矿能源 | 15. ...

供给收缩或提振煤价，逢低再布局弹性标的 煤炭 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2026 年 02 月 07 日 执业证书编号：S0740522040001 Email：duchong@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 上市公司数 | 37 | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 19,855.11 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 19,441.23 | 2026-02-02 配置机会》2026-01-31 2026-01-24 | 增持（维持） 评级： | | | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 简称 | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师：杜冲 | | | （元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 202 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2][26]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Indonesia's coal production is expected to decline significantly in 2026 due to the revision of the RKAB quota, with production set at approximately 600 million tons, a notable decrease from 740 million tons in 2025 [6][7]. - The reduction in coal production is anticipated to lead to a tightening of coal supply, which may drive up global coal prices, particularly for thermal coal [7]. - The Indonesian government is implementing policies to control coal production and exports, aiming to enhance domestic energy security and increase fiscal revenue through coal export taxes [7]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The total number of listed companies in the coal industry is 37, with a total market capitalization of approximately 198.55 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of about 194.41 billion yuan [2]. Regulatory Changes - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources is reviewing the RKAB quotas, which are crucial for coal mining operations. The approval rate for the first batch of RKAB in 2026 was only 71.49%, with significant reductions in approved quotas for many companies [6][7]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the domestic market obligation (DMO) will be adjusted to ensure local demand is met before allowing coal exports. The DMO demand is expected to remain above 250 million tons [7]. - The report predicts that Indonesia's coal exports will face substantial declines starting in Q2 2026, which will further constrain global coal supply and potentially elevate prices [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-elasticity stocks in the thermal coal sector, including companies like Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, Huayang Co., and others, as they are expected to benefit from rising coal prices [7].

煤炭 行业事件点评 领先大市-A(上调) 2026 年 2 月 6 日 行业研究/行业分析 【山证煤炭】弱法币致实物定价权提升， 关注短期事件驱动影响-【山证煤炭】行 业周报（20260126-20260201） 2026.2.3 【山证煤炭】2025 年四季度煤炭债复盘： 财务表现仍有改善空间，供应链风险可 控 2026.1.27 胡博 执业登记编码：S0760522090003 邮箱：hubo1@sxzq.com 程俊杰 执业登记编码：S0760519110005 邮箱：chengjunjie@sxzq.com 印尼矿商暂停现货出口，减产落地超市场预期 分析师： 投资建议：考虑海外煤价或将受催化，有望提振国内煤价预期，上调行 业评级。若海外煤价加速上涨，利好海外业务占比较高的【兖矿能源】。此 外，【潞安环能】、【山西焦煤】、【晋控煤业】、【山煤国际】等弹性品种也将 受益。 风险提示：印尼煤炭减产不及预期，印尼煤炭矿商恢复出口，海外价格上涨 不及预期。 请务必阅读最后股票评级说明和免责声明 1 煤炭板块近一年市场表现 资料来源：常闻 行业研究/行业分析 投资要点： 事件：2 月 3 日据财联社报道，印尼矿业 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for several companies directly benefiting from Indonesian coal resources, including China Qinfa, Power Development, Yanzhou Coal Mining, and others [11]. Core Insights - Indonesia's coal production is expected to decline by approximately 5.5% in 2025, with production estimated at 790 million tons, down from 836 million tons in 2024 [1][14]. - As the world's largest coal exporter, Indonesia's coal exports are projected to decrease by about 5.0% in 2025, with total exports expected to reach 505 million tons [2][20]. - The report highlights significant declines in coal export revenue and tax contributions, leading to increased fiscal pressure on the Indonesian government [3][28]. - Domestic coal demand is expected to grow robustly, driven by population growth and increasing electricity needs [31]. - The Indonesian government plans to implement a series of policies to tighten coal production quotas, increase export taxes, and enhance domestic market obligations (DMO) to support coal prices and increase tax revenue [4][36]. Summary by Sections Coal Production and Export Trends - In 2025, Indonesia's coal production is projected to be 790 million tons, a decrease of 5.5% from 2024 [1][14]. - The coal export volume for 2025 is expected to be 505 million tons, reflecting a 5.0% decline compared to the previous year [2][20]. - The export revenue for coal (excluding lignite) in the first eleven months of 2025 is reported at $22.17 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 20.27% [28]. Domestic Demand and Policy Changes - The IEA forecasts that Indonesia's coal consumption will reach approximately 266 million tons in 2025, primarily due to population growth and economic expansion [31]. - The Indonesian government is set to implement a "combination policy" to manage coal supply actively, which includes tightening production quotas and increasing export taxes [4][36]. Regulatory and Taxation Framework - New regulations will impose a progressive export tax ranging from 1% to 11%, depending on coal type and price, effective from 2026 [9][44]. - The introduction of stricter mining rights taxes linked to coal quality and production methods is expected to raise operational costs for coal producers [45]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes investment in companies that are well-positioned to benefit from the changes in the Indonesian coal market, particularly those with strong domestic market presence and resilience to price fluctuations [11].

2025年印尼煤炭产量7.9亿吨，同比下降5%，已经较年初给予配额的9.17亿要明显下降，2026年印尼可 能大幅下调产量配额至6亿吨，较2025年产量下降24%，反应出印尼政府转变包括镍、煤炭在内资源品 出口策略，控量提价。 全球煤炭供需平衡可能在26年开始被打破，供给收缩需求抬升，看好上升周期 2025年印尼出口煤炭5.24亿吨，同比下降6.1%，是全球第一大动力煤出口国。如果按照26年产量6亿， 满足国内需求25%后，出口量最多只有4.5亿，较25年下降约0.74亿吨，占25年全球海运贸易额约5%， 加速全球煤炭供给收缩。除印尼外，澳洲26H2开始也有超过5%的产能因采矿证到期要开始退出；俄罗 斯产量缺乏资本开支支撑进入自然下滑趋势，同时美国5000万吨动力煤出口可能逐步全面转自用，全球 煤炭紧平衡将逐步兑现，看好煤价后续全球的上升周期。 国泰海通发布研报称，印尼出口政策调整，大幅削减产量配额反应出印尼政府转变包括镍、煤炭在内资 源品出口策略，控量提价。除印尼外，澳洲26H2开始也有超过5%的产能因采矿证到期要开始退出；俄 罗斯产量缺乏资本开支支撑进入自然下滑趋势，同时美国5000万吨动力煤出口可能逐步 ...

晋控煤业 20260204 摘要 四季度销售情况环比改善，10-12 月销量高于前三季度，港口库存显著 下降至约 11 万吨，库存压力缓解。 预计 2026 年产销量接近核定产能 3,400 万吨，较 2025 年实际产量增 长约 10%。 塔山矿区因提升煤质导致损耗，销量下降；塔山坑口煤炭保供签约量占 长协量一半，定价机制参考秦皇岛港口长协电煤价格模式，色联地区采 用基准价加浮动价机制。 金控美业资产收购事项因上交所要求业绩承诺而暂时搁置，计划将探矿 权转为采矿权后再进行转让。 潘家窑矿的探转采工作正在进行中，已报备国家发改委和应急管理部审 批，但审批进度不确定。 同心煤矿运营情况有所改善但未完全恢复，对 2026 年投资收益难以准 确判断。 由于潘家窑注入延后，资本开支减少，预计 2026 年分红比例将提升至 50%左右。 Q&A 2025 年金控美业的产销量情况如何？ 2025 年金控美业的产销量基本一致，总量不到 3,000 万吨，具体数据尚未最 终确定，但大致在 2,900 万吨左右。 2025 年第四季度的销售情况如何？ 2025 年第四季度销售情况较第三季度有所改善。11 月销量相对较好，整体 ...

这样的局面一直延续到昨日下午收盘。据同花顺（300033）数据，昨日煤炭开采加工板块整体收涨 7.92%，成分股中恒源煤电（600971）、开滦股份（600997）、山西焦煤（000983）、大有能源 （600403）、兖矿能源、潞安环能（601699）、中煤能源、美锦能源、陕西黑猫、山煤国际 （600546）、晋控煤业、宝泰隆（601011）、山西焦化、云煤能源等股均斩获首板涨停，陕西煤业 （601225）、淮北矿业（600985）涨超8%，郑州煤电（600121）、昊华能源（601101）等股跟涨。 消息面上，近期，受寒潮影响，国内多地迎来大风雨雪天气，居民取暖拉动能源需求攀升。为确保冬季 能源供应平稳有序，助力百姓温暖过冬和经济平稳运行，各地纷纷加大能源保供力度，推动煤炭稳产稳 供、天然气增储上产、清洁能源应发尽发。 展望后市，机构普遍看好煤价趋稳反弹及节后行情，在春节假期临近背景下，终端补库需求与供应收缩 共同支撑市场，煤价有望实现稳中略涨。大同证券分析师景剑文认为，整体来看，动力煤市场供需偏紧 格局未改，叠加春节后旺季需求预期，煤价中长期具备向上空间。 煤炭ETF年初以来累计上涨超10% 昨日早盘煤 ...

4613.96 煤炭指数昨日分时走势图 ◎记者 王文嫣 截至2月4日收盘，万得央企煤炭概念指数、万得煤炭开采精选指数涨幅分别达到7.61%和7.58%，中煤 能源、恒源煤电、兖矿能源、山西焦煤、潞安环能、山煤国际、晋控煤业等一批个股涨停。 煤炭企业人士、研究员认为，短期内煤价或受印尼矿商暂停现货煤炭出口等消息的扰动。从中长期来 看，煤炭供需基本面有望持续改善，年度价格中枢有望上移。 近年来，新疆煤炭产量迅速攀升，成为影响市场的重要变量。新疆维吾尔自治区统计局最新发布数据， 2025年全疆规模以上工业企业原煤累计产量5.53亿吨，同比增长1.9%，较2024年17.5%的增速明显放 缓。 煤炭市场已提前进入春节放假状态 卓创资讯煤炭行业报告认为，2026年国内动力煤供应量整体仍将保持在高位充裕水平，但考虑到国内超 产核查及"反内卷"工作将继续推进，且新增产能有限，同时煤矿或有控制产量以平衡库存保障利润行为 等因素影响产量，原煤产量增速将放缓的预期较强。 从供应端来看，主产区部分民营煤矿提前进入春节假期，国有煤矿维持稳定生产以保障供应，整体产量 边际收缩。 从需求端来看，前期寒潮推动沿海电厂日耗维持高位，但随着寒 ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.04 印尼削减产量配额，搅动全球煤炭贸易 [Table_Industry] 煤炭 行 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄涛(分析师) | 021-38674879 | huangtao@gtht.com | S0880515090001 | | 邓铖琦(分析师) | 010-83939825 | dengchengqi@gtht.com | S0880523050003 | 本报告导读： 印尼出口政策调整，大幅削减产量配额；全球煤炭 2026 年起供给收缩需求抬升，看 好上升周期；2026 年中国进口煤量或将进一步下降，国内煤价有望恢复增长。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 煤炭《持仓略有提升，焦炭第一轮提价》 2026.02.02 煤炭《国泰海通煤炭行业基本面数据库大全 20260202》2026.02.02 煤炭《Q4 基金持仓持续回升，板块拐点确认》 2026.01.30 煤炭《地产政策多部门联动稳预期，非电需求有 望修复》202 ...