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调整步入尾声,政策陆续落地,价格酝酿反攻
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-09-07 14:18
gszqdatemark 】 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 2025 09 07 年 月 日 煤炭开采 调整步入尾声,政策陆续落地,价格酝酿反攻 行情回顾(2025.8.29~2025.9.5): 中信煤炭指数 3,459.14 点,上涨 0.10%,跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.91pct,位列中信板 块涨跌幅榜第 9 位。 近期,煤炭上市公司的 25 年中报已披露完毕,我们从另外一个视角对相关公司财报 进行解析,总结如下: ➢ 谁是现金王? ➢ 谁的负债低? ➢ 谁的家底厚? ➢ 谁的潜力大? ✓ 利润释放潜力前 3:昊华能源、伊泰 B 股、淮北矿业。 压力测试结束,业绩触底将迎改善。近期我们不断强调两个观点,随着 6 月价格低点 已现,煤企盈利大概率将随之触底回升。 重点领域分析: 增持(维持) -10% 2% 14% 26% 38% 50% 2024-09 2025-01 2025-05 2025-09 煤炭开采 沪深300 作者 分析师 张津铭 执业证书编号:S0680520070001 邮箱:zhangjinming@gszq.com 分析师 刘力钰 执业证书编号:S0680524070012 邮箱: ...
煤炭开采行业研究简报:印度政府调整煤炭税收-20250907
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-09-07 08:15
证券研究报告 | 行业研究简报 gszqdatemark 2025 09 07 年 月 日 煤炭开采 印度政府调整煤炭税收 本周全球能源价格回顾。截至 2025 年 9 月 5 日,原油价格方面,布伦特 原油期货结算价为 65.5 美元/桶,较上周下降 2.62 美元/桶(-3.85%); WTI 原油期货结算价为 61.87 美元/桶,较上周下降 2.14 美元/桶(- 3.34%)。天然气价格方面,东北亚 LNG 现货到岸价为 11.292 美元/百万 英热,较上周上涨 0.146 美元/百万英热(+1.31%);荷兰 TTF 天然气期 货结 算价 32.412 欧 元/ 兆瓦 时 , 较上 周 上涨 0.853 欧 元/ 兆 瓦时 (+2.70%);美国 HH 天然气期货结算价为 3.026 美元/百万英热,较上 周上涨 0.01 美元/百万英热(+0.33%)。煤炭价格方面,欧洲 ARA 港口 煤炭(6000K)到岸价 95.75 美元/吨,较上周下降 0.5 美元/吨(- 0.52%);纽卡斯尔港口煤炭(6000K)FOB 价 108.25 美元/吨,较上周 下降 3.25 美元/吨(-2.91%) ...
煤炭行业周报(9月第1周):9月长协价格上调,板块左侧布局-20250907
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-09-07 06:19
1.煤炭板块收涨,跑赢沪深300指数:截止2025年9月5日,中信煤炭行业收涨0.1%,沪深300指数下跌0.81%,跑赢沪深300指数0.91个百分点。全板块整周12只股价上涨,24只下跌,1只持 平。云煤能源涨幅最高,整周涨幅为4.03%。 2.重点煤矿周度数据:中国煤炭运销协会数据,2025年8月29日-2025年9月4日,重点监测企业煤炭日均销量为667万吨,周环比增加0.9%,年同比减少1.9%。其中,动力煤周日均销量较上 周增加3.9%,炼焦煤销量较上周减少7.5%,无烟煤销量较上周减少9.9%。截至2025年9月4日,重点监测企业煤炭日均产量为664万吨,周环比减少0.1%,年同比减少1.7%;重点监测企业煤 炭库存总量(含港存)2585万吨,周环比减少0.7%,年同比减少9.1%。今年以来,供给端,重点监测企业煤炭累计销量170603.8万吨,同比减少2.7%;其中动力煤、焦煤、无烟煤累计销量 分别同比-3.7%、-3%、7.1%。需求端,电力、化工行业累计耗煤分别同比减少2.6%、增加16.5%。铁水产量同比增加0.6%。 添加标题 95% 3.动力煤产业链:截止2025年9月5日,价格方面 ...
煤炭2025中报总结(一):业绩压力测试结束,反转,不是反弹
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-09-05 08:41
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal mining sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry moving forward [5]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the coal industry is experiencing a reversal rather than a rebound, with expectations for profitability to improve as coal prices have likely reached their lowest point [12][10]. - The report highlights that coal prices have begun to stabilize and recover, particularly in the context of both thermal and coking coal [15][19]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - As of September 1, 2025, the spot price for Q5500 thermal coal is reported at 695 CNY/ton, down 73 CNY/ton from the beginning of the year but up 77 CNY/ton from the lowest price in June [19]. - The average spot price for Q5500 thermal coal in Q2 2025 was 642 CNY/ton, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 211 CNY/ton (24.7%) and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 91 CNY/ton (12.5%) [19]. - Coking coal prices have also shown resilience, with the price for low-sulfur coking coal reported at 1480 CNY/ton, up 100 CNY/ton from the start of the year [23]. Performance Overview - The report notes that the coal sector has underperformed compared to the broader market, with the CSI 300 index rising by 16.37% from April 1 to September 1, 2025, while the coal index only increased by 8.99% [2][29]. - Among 26 sampled coal companies, 19 saw their stock prices rise, while 7 experienced declines during the same period [2]. Fund Holdings - As of Q2 2025, active funds held 0.43% of their portfolios in the coal sector, a slight decrease from Q1, while passive funds held 0.71%, also down from the previous quarter [3][34]. - The combined holding of both active and passive funds in the coal sector is 0.55%, reflecting a decline of 0.06 percentage points from Q1 2025 [3]. Financial Performance - The report indicates that coal companies' profits have been under pressure due to declining coal prices, with a total profit decline of 5.4% to 113.7% among the sampled companies [3][12]. - Notably, companies like Electric Power Energy and Kailuan achieved profit growth despite the overall downward trend in the sector [3]. Operational Insights - Coal companies are focusing on increasing production, improving quality, and reducing costs to mitigate the impact of falling prices [4][12]. - The total coal production for the sampled companies in H1 2025 was 586 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.5% [12]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks with strong earnings elasticity such as Lu'an Energy, Yanzhou Coal, and Jinkong Coal, while also highlighting key state-owned enterprises like China Shenhua and China Coal Energy for potential investment [10][11].
煤炭行业2025年半年报总结:上半年业绩承压,下半年回暖可期
Minsheng Securities· 2025-09-05 07:22
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal industry, recommending specific companies based on their performance and market conditions [7][8]. Core Insights - The coal market experienced a decline in prices during the first half of 2025, with an average price of 675.7 CNY/ton for thermal coal, a year-on-year decrease of 22.8% [3][14]. - A rebound in coal prices is anticipated in the second half of 2025 due to increased demand and supply constraints, potentially returning to levels seen in Q3 2024 [4][29]. - The report highlights a significant reduction in production from both domestic and international sources, with a year-on-year decrease in coal production from major exporting countries [18][24]. Market Review - In H1 2025, thermal coal prices continued to decline, with Q2 prices hitting a low of 631.6 CNY/ton, down 25.6% year-on-year [3][14]. - The average price of coking coal also saw a significant drop, with the main coking coal price at 1377.67 CNY/ton, down 38.79% year-on-year [3][14]. Industry Outlook - The report forecasts a price recovery driven by supply reductions and seasonal demand increases, with expectations for prices to return to Q3 2024 levels [4][29]. - Supply-side constraints are expected to persist, with an estimated annual reduction of 230 million tons due to stricter production regulations [24][25]. - Non-electric demand, particularly from the coal chemical sector, is projected to grow, providing additional support for coal prices [29][30]. Fund Holdings - In Q2 2025, most listed companies in the coal sector saw an increase in fund holdings compared to Q1, with notable increases for companies like Huabei Mining and Xinjie Energy [5][34]. Half-Year Report Summary - The coal sector's total revenue in H1 2025 decreased by 18.8% year-on-year, with the thermal coal sub-sector experiencing a 16.6% decline [36][37]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 32% year-on-year, with the coking coal sub-sector facing the steepest decline of 60.1% [38].
晋控煤业(601001):25Q2吨煤毛利环比改善,潘家窑产能注入推进
Huafu Securities· 2025-09-04 08:13
华福证券 动力煤 2025 年 09 月 04 日 公 司 研 究 公 司 财 报 点 晋控煤业(601001.SH) 25Q2 吨煤毛利环比改善,潘家窑产能注入推进 投资要点: 公司披露 2025H1 业绩: 2025H1 公司实现营收 59.7 亿元,同比-19.2%;归母净利润 8.8 亿 元,同比-39.0%。其中,25Q2 实现营收 35.4 亿元,同环比-4.8%/+46.1%; 归母净利润 3.6 亿元,同环比-44.5%/-29.0%。 25Q2 产销量提升,吨煤毛利环比改善 评 2025H1 煤炭营收 56.1 亿元,同比-21.7%;营业成本 34.7 亿元, 同比-10.7%;毛利润 21.4 亿元,同比-34.7%。其中,25Q2 营收 33.7 亿元,同环比-6.8%/+50.1%;营业成本 19.8 亿元,环比+33.2%;毛利 润 13.8 亿元,环比+83.5%。 25H1 公司原煤产量 1722 万吨,同比+1.7%;商品煤销量 1329 万吨,同比-8.0%;吨煤售价 422 元/吨,同比-14.8%;吨煤成本 261 元/吨,同比-2.9%;吨煤毛利 161 元/吨,同比 ...
【盘中播报】73只股长线走稳 站上年线
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2025-09-04 06:34
Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index is at 3757.36 points, with a decline of 1.47% and total A-share trading volume of 20349.66 billion yuan [1] - As of now, 73 A-shares have surpassed their annual line, with notable stocks showing significant deviation rates [1] Notable Stocks - Stocks with the highest deviation rates include: - Aibulu (301259) with a deviation rate of 8.09% and a price increase of 10.22% [1] - Gongxiao Daji (000564) with a deviation rate of 8.06% and a price increase of 8.56% [1] - Shenglong Co. (603178) with a deviation rate of 6.11% and a price increase of 10.02% [1] - Other stocks with lower deviation rates that have just crossed the annual line include: - Weiguang Biological, Changjiang Electric Power, and Yunnan Tourism [1] Deviation Rate Rankings - The top stocks by deviation rate on September 4 include: - Aibulu (301259): Latest price 47.35 yuan, annual line 43.81 yuan [1] - Gongxiao Daji (000564): Latest price 2.79 yuan, annual line 2.58 yuan [1] - Shenglong Co. (603178): Latest price 20.54 yuan, annual line 19.36 yuan [1] - Additional stocks with notable performance include: - Wufangzhai (603237) with a deviation rate of 4.78% [1] - Yuanzhu Co. (603886) with a deviation rate of 3.50% [1]
晋控煤业:9月10日将召开2025年半年度业绩说明会
Zheng Quan Ri Bao Wang· 2025-09-03 10:13
证券日报网讯9月3日晚间,晋控煤业(601001)发布公告称,公司计划于2025年09月10日(星期三)16: 00-17:00举行2025年半年度业绩说明会。 ...
晋控煤业: 晋能控股山西煤业股份有限公司关于召开2025年半年度业绩说明会的公告
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-09-03 08:10
证券代码:601001 证券简称:晋控煤业 公告编号:2025-019 晋能控股山西煤业股份有限公司 关于召开 2025 年半年度业绩说明会的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏,并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 公司计划于 2025 年 09 月 10 日(星期三) 16:00-17:00 举行 2025 年半年度业绩说明 会,就投资者关心的问题进行交流。 一、 说明会类型 本次投资者说明会以网络互动形式召开,公司将针对 2025 年半 年度的经营成果及财务指标的具体情况与投资者进行互动交流和沟 通,在信息披露允许的范围内就投资者普遍关注的问题进行回答。 重要内容提示: ???会议召开时间:2025 年 09 月 10 日 (星期三) 16:00-17:00 ? 会议召开地点:上海证券交易所上证路演中心(网址: https://roadshow.sseinfo.com/) ? 会议召开方式:上证路演中心网络互动 ? 投资者可于 2025 年 09 月 03 日 (星期三) 至 09 月 09 日 (星 期二)16:00 前登录上证路演中心网站 ...
晋控煤业(601001) - 晋能控股山西煤业股份有限公司关于召开2025年半年度业绩说明会的公告
2025-09-03 08:00
证券代码:601001 证券简称:晋控煤业 公告编号:2025-019 晋能控股山西煤业股份有限公司 关于召开 2025 年半年度业绩说明会的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏,并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示: https://roadshow.sseinfo.com/) 会议召开方式:上证路演中心网络互动 投资者可于 2025 年 09 月 03 日 (星期三) 至 09 月 09 日 (星 期二)16:00 前登录上证路演中心网站首页点击"提问预征集"栏目 或通过公司邮箱 jkmypublic@yeah.net 进行提问。公司将在说明会上 对投资者普遍关注的问题进行回答。 晋能控股山西煤业股份有限公司(以下简称"公司")已于 2025 年 8 月 28 日发布公司 2025 年半年度报告,为便于广大投资者更全面 深入地了解公司 2025 年半年度经营成果、财务状况,公司计划于 2025 年 09 月 10 日(星期三) 16:00-17:00 举行 2025 年半年度业绩说明 会,就投资者关心的问题进行交流。 一、 说明会 ...