晋控煤业(601001)：提质增效显著 资产注入可期

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its 2024 annual results and Q1 2025 performance, showing a decline in revenue and net profit primarily due to falling coal prices, but maintains a "buy" rating due to strong cost control and stable coal prices [1][5]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 15.033 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.01%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.808 billion yuan, down 14.93%, which aligns with expectations [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 2.424 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 33.73%, and a net profit of 512 million yuan, down 34.35%, primarily impacted by a 19.8% drop in the average quarterly price of Qinhuangdao 5500 thermal coal to 728 yuan/ton [1]. Group 2: Coal Business Performance - The coal business generated revenue of 14.7 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 1.46%, with coal production at 34.6664 million tons, down 0.06%, and sales volume of 29.9665 million tons, down 0.43% [2]. - The average selling price of commercial coal was 491 yuan/ton in 2024, a decrease of 1.48%, while the average price of Qinhuangdao 5500 thermal coal fell by 11.28% [2]. Group 3: Strategic Focus and Growth Potential - The company, as a listed coal platform of Jinneng Holding Group, is set to acquire high-quality coal mine assets from the group, starting with the acquisition of the Panjiayao coal mine, which has a planned annual capacity of 10 million tons, representing 29% of its current approved capacity [3]. - The company's coal production in 2024 accounted for only 8.6% of the group's total production (402 million tons), indicating significant potential for future asset injections and growth [3]. Group 4: Efficiency and Profitability Improvements - The company has initiated a "quality improvement and efficiency enhancement" program, resulting in a 0.5% year-on-year decrease in operating costs and a 0.9 percentage point reduction in management expenses as a percentage of revenue in 2024 [4]. - The company's debt-to-asset ratio improved to 28.89% in 2024, down 6.42 percentage points year-on-year, and the dividend payout ratio reached 45%, an increase of 4.54 percentage points [4]. Group 5: Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to the anticipated decline in coal prices, the company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 2.99 billion yuan and 3.45 billion yuan, respectively, representing decreases of 19% and 8% from previous estimates [5]. - The company is expected to benefit from ongoing asset injections and capacity expansion, with a target price adjustment to 18.22 yuan based on a 10.2 times PE valuation for 2025, maintaining a "buy" rating [5].