Shede Spirits (SH:600702) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-04-29 02:35Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, indicating challenges in the market and operational adjustments needed to improve performance [1][5]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 1.576 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 346 million yuan, down 37.1% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 69.4%, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 4.9 percentage points but an improvement compared to the second half of 2024 [2]. - Sales revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor was 1.234 billion yuan, down 28.5% year-on-year, while ordinary liquor revenue was 208 million yuan, down 12.6% year-on-year [2]. Market and Channel Analysis - Revenue from the domestic market was 494 million yuan, down 9.0% year-on-year, while revenue from outside the province was 949 million yuan, down 33.2% year-on-year [2]. - The company has seen a reduction in the number of distributors, with 2,621 distributors at the end of Q1 2025, a decrease of 42 from the end of 2024, indicating a more stable core customer base [2]. - E-commerce channel revenue increased by 36.7% year-on-year to 205 million yuan, reflecting a positive trend in online sales [2]. Cost and Investment Strategy - The company maintained a proactive investment in expenses during the peak season, with a sales expense ratio increase of 3.03 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The net operating cash flow for Q1 2025 was 224 million yuan, a significant increase of 106.8% year-on-year, indicating improved cash management [3]. Incentive Plans - The company announced a stock incentive plan on March 27, 2025, proposing to grant up to 2.0366 million shares to 168 individuals, with performance targets set for 2025-2027 [4]. - The performance targets include a revenue growth rate of no less than 20%, 36%, and 55% for the respective years, or net profit growth rates of no less than 164%, 231%, and 309% [4]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company expects a gradual improvement in revenue and performance as it enters a low base period in Q2 2025, with projected revenues of 5.08 billion yuan, 5.38 billion yuan, and 5.76 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [5]. - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders is 420 million yuan, 450 million yuan, and 510 million yuan for the same period, reflecting a positive growth outlook [5].