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舍得酒业(600702):高基数下继续调整 后续有望逐季改善

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, primarily due to continued pressure on mid-to-high-end demand, but there are expectations for profit improvement in the coming years [1][3]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.576 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.14%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 346 million yuan, down 37.10% [1]. - The total revenue including contract liabilities was 1.617 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 21.62%, while cash sales amounted to 1.623 billion yuan, down 15.34%, indicating better cash collection performance compared to revenue [1]. - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 69.36%, a decrease of 4.79 percentage points year-on-year, likely influenced by a shift in product mix [3]. Product and Regional Performance - Revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor was 1.234 billion yuan, down 28.46%, while low-end liquor revenue was 208 million yuan, down 12.59%, with the decline rate slowing compared to previous periods [2]. - Revenue from domestic sales was 494 million yuan, down 8.96%, while revenue from outside the province was 949 million yuan, down 33.25% [2]. - The number of distributors decreased to 2,621, a reduction of 42 compared to the end of 2024 [2]. Future Outlook - The company has announced a stock incentive plan aimed at motivating employees, with targets for revenue growth of no less than 20%, 36%, and 55% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, and net profit growth targets of no less than 164%, 231%, and 309% [4]. - Based on Q1 2025 performance, the company expects revenues of 5.789 billion yuan, 6.332 billion yuan, and 6.799 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 921 million yuan, 1.165 billion yuan, and 1.417 billion yuan, indicating significant growth potential [5].