老白干酒(600559)：2025年规划理性 盈利改善继续兑现

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight increase in revenue for 2024, with a notable growth in net profit, while Q4 2024 showed a decline in revenue and net profit. The first quarter of 2025 showed a modest revenue increase and a significant rise in net profit, indicating a mixed performance trend [1][4]. Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved revenue of 5.358 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.91%, and a net profit of 787 million yuan, up 18.19%. However, Q4 2024 revenue was 1.270 billion yuan, down 10.03%, with a net profit of 231 million yuan, down 6.79% [1]. - In Q1 2025, revenue reached 1.168 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.36%, while net profit was 152 million yuan, up 11.91%. Contract liabilities decreased by 20.58% year-on-year to 1.877 billion yuan [1]. Product Performance - In 2024, specific products showed varied performance: Wuling and Kongfu Family wines experienced significant growth, while others like Hengshui Laobai Gan and Bancheng Shaoguo saw declines. The revenue for Wuling wine was 1.099 billion yuan, up 12.30%, and Kongfu Family wine was 230 million yuan, up 28.12% [2]. - In Q1 2025, products priced above 100 yuan generated 661 million yuan in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 25.50%, while products below 100 yuan generated 502 million yuan, down 15.65% [2]. Profitability and Cost Management - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 65.95%, a decrease of 1.21 percentage points. The net profit margin improved to 14.69%, an increase of 2.02 percentage points. In Q1 2025, the gross profit margin rose to 68.58%, up 5.86 percentage points, indicating improved product mix and cost management [3]. - The sales expense ratio and management expense ratio showed a decline in 2024, contributing to the overall improvement in profitability [3]. Future Outlook - The company projects revenue growth for 2025-2027, estimating revenues of 5.473 billion, 5.764 billion, and 6.016 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 928 million, 1.052 billion, and 1.169 billion yuan. This reflects a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.09% [4]. - The company maintains a "buy" rating, citing significant potential for profit improvement due to effective state-owned enterprise reforms and rational planning for 2025 [4].